Only modest progress has been made by countries on climate pledges to reduce carbon emissions, “leaving the world heading for a serious escalation of climate risks and damages”, the UN Environmental Programme (UNEP) warns in its latest evaluation.
As world leaders including Taoiseach Micheál Martin gather in the Amazon city of Belém in Brazil for a summit on Thursday in advance of Cop30, the UNEP says global warming projections over this century are now at 2.3 to 2.5 degrees above pre-industrial times – if countries fully deliver on commitments. This, however, would make large parts of the planet unlivable.
“Lack of ambition and action means exceedance of 1.5 degrees is approaching,” the report adds. This breach is based on a long-term average rather than a single year’s temperature.
The report issued on Tuesday assesses commitments by countries under the Paris Agreement, in their “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs). It also helps set the agenda for negotiations during Cop30 on collective efforts to reduce emissions.
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The assessment says predicted global temperature rise over this century has only slightly fallen. Implementing current policies would lead to up to 2.8 degrees of warming, compared with 3.1 degrees last year.
It acknowledges some progress – “methodological updates” account for 0.1 degrees of improvement. However, the upcoming US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1 degrees, “meaning new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle”.
The report finds the multi-decadal average of global temperature rise will exceed 1.5 degrees at least temporarily. “This will be difficult to reverse – requiring faster and bigger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimise overshoot, reduce damages to lives and economies, and avoid over-reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal methods.”
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UNEP director Inger Andersen said while national climate plans have delivered progress, “it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop”.
She added: “But it is still possible – just. Proven solutions already exist. From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done.”
“A huge implementation gap remains, with countries not on track to meet their 2030 NDCs, let alone new 2035 targets,” UNEP says.
The size of cuts required, and short time left to deliver them, means the multi-decadal average of global temperature will now exceed 1.5 degrees, “very likely within the next decade”.
“Stringent near-term cuts to emissions could delay the onset of overshoot, but not avoid it entirely. The big task ahead is to strive to make this overshoot temporary and minimal, through rapid emissions cuts that keep returning to 1.5 degrees by 2100 in the realms of possibility,” it finds.
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Every fraction of a degree avoided reduces escalation of damages, losses and health impacts that are harming all countries – while hitting the poorest and most vulnerable the hardest – and reduces the risks of climate-tipping points and other irreversible impacts, it says.
“Minimising overshoot would also reduce reliance on uncertain, risky and costly carbon dioxide removal methods – which would need to permanently remove and store about five years of current global annual CO2 emissions to reverse each 0.1 degree of overshoot.”
UNEP says low-carbon technologies to deliver big emission cuts are available. “Wind and solar energy development is booming, lowering deployment costs. This means the international community can accelerate climate action, should they choose to do so,” it adds.
Delivering faster cuts, however, “would require navigating a challenging geopolitical environment, a massive increase in support to developing countries and redesigning the international financial architecture”.
