The memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran is unravelling after more than a week of military escalation. But a return to talks is the most plausible option for both sides.
A dangerous escalation
As the US launched a new round of air strikes against Iran on Monday morning, Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait activated air defences against incoming Iranian drones and missiles. And the deaths of three US service personnel in Jordan and Iraq over the weekend are likely to fuel an escalation in attacks in the coming days.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said on Saturday that Tehran was suspending the implementation of the memorandum of understanding while it was “busy defending the country” against American attacks.
“The US has violated and suspended all its commitments within the framework of the Islamabad MoU,” he said.
Supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned the US that it would receive “unforgettable lessons” for its actions that “have once again proven to everyone the truth of how worthless and invalid the signature of the US president is”.
Washington blames Tehran for the agreement’s unravelling, arguing that Iran has broken its promise to facilitate freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. And it rejects Tehran’s assertion that the MoU gave Iran the right to regulate shipping through the strait and to attack vessels that attempt to pass without its permission.
The escalation of military action over the past week has seen the US expand the range of its targets in Iran beyond military assets to infrastructure including bridges, utilities and port facilities. Iran has retaliated with strikes not just against the Gulf states that host US forces but on American bases in Jordan too.
The US is sending more warplanes to the Middle East in a sign that it is preparing to step up its strikes against Iran and it has the capacity to sustain a longer campaign if it chooses.
Iran also appears to have enough drones and missiles to continue striking US allies in the region and to deter ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Washington does not yet appear to be planning a return to war on the scale of the start of this campaign in late February – which saw the aerial bombardment of Iranian cities. And Tehran has so far held back from attacking essential energy infrastructure in the Gulf or asking its Houthi allies to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb strait that controls access to the Red Sea.
Although the US and Iran are both capable of further military escalation, prolonging the conflict will be costly for both of them, as well as for the global economy. Iran sold about $6 billion worth of oil during the brief pause in hostilities but that revenue stream has halted and the US will not unfreeze Tehran’s billions of dollars in frozen financial assets until negotiations resume.
The MoU was poorly drafted insofar as it allowed Washington and Tehran to embrace contradictory interpretations of its provisions on the Strait of Hormuz. And it has proven to be too weak a diplomatic instrument to support the weight of the issues surrounding the war, including Israel’s campaign in Lebanon and the future of Iran’s nuclear programme.
Neither Washington nor Tehran can achieve their maximalist aims through further military escalation, which becomes more dangerous with each round of tit-for-tat attacks.
The attacks may get worse in the coming days but mediation efforts continue in the background and the two sides are likely to return to the negotiating table, if only for a while.
Please let me know what you think and send your comments, thoughts or suggestions for topics you would like to see covered to denis.globalbriefing@irishtimes.com
