Vladimir Putin has said Russia will halt its participation in New Start, the last major remaining nuclear arms control treaty with the US, in a speech devoted to the one-year anniversary of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“They want to inflict a strategic defeat on us and claim our nuclear facilities,” the Russian president said during a speech characterised by grievances against the West. “In this regard, I am forced to state that Russia is suspending its participation in the strategic offensive arms treaty.”
The treaty provides for limits on the deployed strategic nuclear arsenals of the world’s two largest nuclear powers, capping strategic nuclear assets at 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 deployed missiles. The treaty also provides for joint monitoring of each side’s deployed nuclear arsenals, as well as co-ordination through a bilateral consultative commission.
“This is a big deal; suspension of the treaty is not equal to withdrawal but in reality, it could become really close over time,” said Andrey Baklitskiy, a senior researcher in the weapons of mass destruction and other strategic weapons programme at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research.
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In a nearly two-hour speech, Putin said the treaty could not be kept separate from the war in Ukraine and “other hostile actions of the West against our country”.
“Now, through Nato representatives, they are putting forward, in fact, an ultimatum: you, Russia, must fulfil everything that you have agreed on, including the Start treaty, and we will behave as we please,” Putin said.
In particular, Putin fumed over Nato support for Ukraine, and claimed the West was seeking a “strategic defeat” of Russia. He also claimed the US was seeking to rewrite the post-second World War security architecture, “to build an American-style world where there is only one master”.
Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of the R Politik analysis firm, said of the speech: “It feels more doomed, much more irreconcilable. Almost like it is either them or us, even if he does not say it.”
The decision to suspend participation in the arms treaty would mark a new low in US-Russia relations and arms control, one of the few topics on which Moscow and Washington DC could find common ground.
“Details matter, but if Russia is indeed stopping data exchanges and notifications, it would fundamentally change the nuclear relationship with Russia. [The US and Russia] have had some form of strategic arms control in place since 1972,” wrote Jon Wolfsthal, who served as a senior adviser to Barack Obama for arms control and non-proliferation at the national security council from 2014 to 2017.
“[The] US still has extensive ability to monitor Russian nuclear forces, even without a treaty in place. But the loss of agreements will increase uncertainty and chances of misunderstanding, inflate threat perception and fuel accelerating arms race.”
Putin, in his speech, promised tax breaks for businesses and government support for fighters returning from the war in Ukraine. Much of the speech was extremely conservative given the stress put on Russian society by the invasion and the country’s first mass mobilisation since the second World War.
The key lines came toward the end, when Putin said Russia would halt its participation in New Start. He also said Russia would resume testing of nuclear weapons if the US did the same, a serious escalation that could mean it was preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Withdrawing from New Start would theoretically allow Russia to end compliance with limits of deployed nuclear weapons and also would stop meetings of the bilateral consultative commission, the implementing body of the treaty.
When the treaty was extended in 2021, the then Pentagon press secretary, John Kirby, said the US “cannot afford to lose New Start’s intrusive inspection and notification tools”.
Those notifications include information on the numbers, locations and technical characteristics of weapons systems and facilities, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers.
“Failing to swiftly extend New Start would weaken America’s understanding of Russia’s long-range nuclear forces,” Kirby said then.
Baklitskiy said: “Russia will probably stick to the New Start treaty limits, at least for now, but it will be harder for the US to verify compliance only using the national technical means. And I would expect the US also suspending its obligations.”
The US ambassador to Moscow was called to the foreign ministry shortly after Putin ended his speech, probably for a formal announcement of Russia’s suspension of its obligations under the treaty.
“One silver lining is that Russian decision is political and can be easily reversed if the overall political relations change,” said Baklitskiy. “Also, since the treaty exists, getting back to implementation would be straightforward. The problem, of course, is that there is no change of political relations in sight.”
Mr Putin gave his speech as Joe Biden is due to consult allies from Nato’s eastern flank in Poland on Tuesday as the Russian invasion of Ukraine edges toward an even more complicated stage.
After paying an unannounced visit to Kyiv, the US president made his way to Warsaw on Monday on a mission to solidify Western unity as both Ukraine and Russia prepare to launch spring offensives.
The conflict – the most significant war in Europe since the second World War – has already left tens of thousands dead, devastated Ukraine’s infrastructure system and damaged the global economy.
“I thought it was critical that there not be any doubt, none whatsoever, about US support for Ukraine in the war,” Mr Biden said as he stood with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv before departing for Poland.
“The Ukrainian people have stepped up in a way that few people ever have in the past.”
Mr Biden is scheduled to meet Polish president Andrzej Duda and deliver an address from the gardens of Warsaw’s Royal Castle on Tuesday, where he is expected to highlight the commitment of the central European country and other allies to Ukraine over the past year.
On Wednesday, he will consult Mr Duda and other leaders of the Bucharest Nine, a group of Nato’s easternmost members.
It comes as the Irish Government is set to consider a proposal on Tuesday to approve the deployment of up to 30 Army personnel to the EU’s Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine.
Ireland has contributed to EU-led military training missions before, most recently in Mali. However, this will be the first time it has contributed to training a force engaged in a war against another country.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Mr Biden would underscore in his Warsaw address that Russian president Vladimir Putin wrongly surmised “that Ukraine would cower and that the West would be divided” when he launched his invasion.
“He got the opposite of that across the board,” Mr Sullivan said.
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While Mr Biden is looking to use his whirlwind trip to Europe as a moment of affirmation for Ukraine and allies, the White House has also emphasised that there is no clear endgame to the war in the near term and the situation on the ground has become increasingly complex.
The administration on Sunday revealed it has new intelligence suggesting that China, which has remained on the sidelines of the conflict, is now considering sending Moscow lethal aid.
US secretary of state Antony Blinken said it could become a “serious problem” if Beijing follows through.
Mr Biden and Mr Zelenskiy discussed capabilities that Ukraine needs “to be able to succeed on the battlefield” in the months ahead, Mr Sullivan said.
Mr Zelenskiy has been pushing the US and European allies to provide fighter jets and long-range missile systems known as ATACMS – which Mr Biden has declined to provide so far.
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With no end in sight for the war, the anniversary is a critical moment for Mr Biden to try to bolster European unity and reiterate that Mr Putin’s invasion was a frontal attack on the post-second World War international order.
The White House hopes the president’s visit to Kyiv and Warsaw will help bolster American and global resolve. – Agencies