It is a measure of Connacht's startling progress this season that, uniquely for their second meeting of the season, this tie finds Ulster in far greater need of the points. In what has been a curiously up-and-down season, for Ulster a run of just one win (at home to Zebre) in four matches has left them perilously placed.
Not only are Ulster a point behind Munster in the last of the playoff spots (with Glasgow having a game in hand and three of their last four matches against the porous Italian outfits), like Munster they have to look over their shoulders as well.
Needing a top-six finish to ensure Champions Cup rugby next season, they are four points ahead of seventh-placed Edinburgh, who entertain Zebre tonight.
Their form had a post-World Cup pick-me-up with the arrival of Les Kiss as director of rugby, but the absence of key men – Tommy Bowe for virtually the entire season and Iain Henderson for a chunk of it – has taken its toll and their form has tapered off with their Six Nations demands. Despite playing some excellent rugby in patches and scoring some fine tries, their performance levels have dipped.
Winnable matches
They have shown an old habit of letting slip eminently winnable matches, which seems as much mental as physical.
Hence, while admitting that that this is a must-win match, and most probably with another three to come, Andrew Trimble has no doubts as to Ulster's basic requirement this evening.
“It needs 80 minutes. Glasgow was similar to the playoff last year in that we created a lot of opportunities, got over the line and put them under pressure for long periods. We have proved to ourselves we can do that but we have to keep doing it. [Only] an 80-minute performance and nothing less is going to be enough to win this weekend.
“We’ve missed too many opportunities this season and maybe we make excuses for them, there are things that we are not in control of. But this game is a must-win and we have to take the bull by the horns.”
Competitiveness
Last weekend’s results effectively consigned the Ospreys to Challenge Cup rugby next season, which highlights the increased competitiveness of the Pro12. Reputations are no longer respected.
Ulster are one of those for whom anything can still happen this season. “The goal is absolutely a top-four finish,” said Kiss.
“We are still contenders and some teams dropped out this week as pretenders. We are still contenders. To be in that space where we can still believe that it is possible is important.
“Leinster lost last week, they have a big match this week. Everyone will push each other around a little bit, but that only matters if we get the job done. We need to get that job done because that is what puts pressure on the competition and others.”
