A UCD research group is trying to create a computer that will predict how changing land-use will impact on the environment, writes Aine Bird
HOW CAN WE predict the effects development and changing land-use will have on our urban neighbours, not just people, but foxes, birds, rats and even lizards? A new computer model being developed at University College Dublin may provide the answers.
The Urban Environment Project, based in UCD's Urban Institute Ireland, currently has five PhD researchers looking not only at biodiversity, but also topics such as air quality, climate change, urban sprawl and transport. Using population projection figures from the Central Statistics Office, the computer model will show what effect land-use change over time will have on these factors. It is hoped by integrating environmental data into planning and development, informed decisions can be made by policy makers and planners at national and local levels.
Urban biodiversity includes all the plants and animals which live in the urban environment. One aspect of the study involves the collection and analysis of the distribution and density of various plants and animals, a measure of biodiversity within urban areas.
The group receives data from various sources, for example information on bird populations from BirdWatch Ireland. The UCD analysis of the bird data showed that while an urban setting such as Dublin has fewer bird species than a rural setting, it actually supports a larger overall bird population.
"There are more actual birds then outside the city but there is just less diversity," explains PhD researcher Michael Brennan
"The higher bird numbers in cities is down to the birds which live in urban areas being less particular about their habitats and also because Irish people are generally quite good about leaving food out for birds in winter. There is also still quite a lot of green space in the city."
Brennan hopes to continue this research by looking at the changes in bird diversity in response to modifications of the built environment. "We will look to see what the changes are with changing spaces. See what buildings are present, the overall features of the area, if the houses are detached, semi-detached, terraces etc."
This may confirm a suspicion of Brennan's that development in the suburbs will lead to a decrease in biodiversity in the city. "Apartment blocks could create barriers, stopping biodiversity from getting into the city and blocking what is in the city from getting out."
Brennan has also investigated the distribution of our only native reptile, Lacrta vivipara, the common lizard. "Not many people know that we have lizards in Ireland. These lizards, which can be up to 18cm long, have been seen in Dublin suburbs. People often make so much noise that the lizards are long gone before people see them but if you know where to look you can see them basking in the sun in the morning."
There have been quite a few lizard sightings around Glendalough, Co Wicklow, and Brennan also suggests that sightings could be possible in some of the parks around Dublin, such as Marlay Park in Rathfarnham or in some of the boggy areas on the city's fringes.
When completed, the computer model, Moland, should help provide answers to questions related to urban development. This includes the effect climate-change will have on areas within Dublin, how transport developments will change the way people travel into the city and how higher density residential development might effect air quality in the city centre.
The project is funded by the Environmental Protection Agency, while Trinity College and NUI Maynooth are involved as academic partners. A number of local authorities in the greater Dublin region are also involved.
"People are travelling from Louth, Meath, Kildare and other counties to work in Dublin, so we need to factor this into our model," says Brennan.
"Essentially we are trying to find out what urbanisation and the change from one land-use type to another will do to our environment. Hopefully our research will be able to aid planning processes in the future."
More information on the Urban Environment Project can be found at www.uep.ie