Remind me again – what is Cop?
Cop stands for “conference of the parties”, the parties being the countries that signed up to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which came into effect in 1992.
There are 197 parties and they’ve met up almost every year since to try to make progress.
How’s that going for them?
Greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, the planet is still getting hotter, climate change is escalating, ice sheets and glaciers are melting, sea levels are rising, extreme weather is becoming more extreme more frequently and nature is collapsing.
So, not great then?
Well, at Cop21 a belated admission that things were getting critical prompted fresh pledges to accelerate action under what was called the Paris Agreement.
RM Block
Since then, there have been advances in renewable energies and energy efficiencies and the rate of growth of fossil fuels has slowed so instead of the planet being on track to heat up by 4 degrees by the end of the century, it’s now on track for around 2.6 degrees.
And that’s good?
No, just slightly less terrible.
What will Cop31 do to fix things?
It will look to find ways to get countries to put into action all they’ve agreed in recent years such as phasing out or, as they call it, “transitioning away from” fossil fuels.
It will push for a big increase in electrification such as electric vehicles to reduce use of petrol and diesel and electric heating to replace coal, oil and gas.
Methane will come under the spotlight. A voluntary Global Methane Pledge – to cut methane from agriculture, landfills and gasfields by 30 per cent by 2030 – was made five years ago and if it was actually honoured, it could make a vast difference, as methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon.
[ Climate extremes ‘off the charts’ as countries gather for Cop31 summitOpens in new window ]
A “Global Stocktake” is due to get under way that will assess just how far countries have come in reducing their emissions – or how far they have to go. That could provide a nudge to countries to accelerate action.
Efforts will be made to agree how a “just transition” will work – for example, what supports could be provided to miners in poorer countries if their government was to be persuaded to stop digging coal.
That sounds positive, but I’m sensing obstacles
Finance is always a stumbling block. Poorer countries need money to build renewable energy infrastructure, recover from climate disasters and build defences against future extreme weather events.
They demand the money comes from richer countries who have contributed by far the most to climate change. Funding has increased but by nowhere near what is wanted and there are disputes within the richer nations over which of them is actually rich.
Also, formal agreements must be by consensus so all it takes is for one country to object to a proposal and it falls. It doesn’t mean the majority can’t pursue the proposal anyway but it would be outside the formal supports of the United Nations.
It doesn’t help that one of the top carbon polluters, the US, is no longer a party.
Who will be at Cop31?
World leaders, their ministers and officials, national and international agencies, businesses, banks, NGOs, academics and media.
Who’s in charge?
This year is odd, with Turkey holding the Cop presidency and hosting the event in Antalya while Australia is managing the negotiations. It’s a compromise because neither would withdraw their bid to host so it’s either a good omen for multilateral co-operation or a demonstration of how incredibly stubborn parties can be.
