Ireland’s hottest May day would not have happened without human-caused climate change, scientists who studied last month’s record-breaking temperatures have found.
The record for the hottest day in May was broken by more than 2 degrees in a sudden surge of heat they described as “remarkable” and “downright alarming”.
The previous high temperature record for May was 28.4 degrees, logged at Ardfert, Co Kerry on May 31st, 1997. That was before the “unusually early” spell of heat from May 23rd-27th last.
On May 26th the weather station at Shannon Airport recorded 30.6 degrees. That record may also fall as seven other stations are believed to have broken it with provisional temperatures as high as 30.9 degrees.
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Their data is still being verified but, if confirmed, would mean the old record was broken by 2.5 degrees – a surge the scientists say was not possible without climate change.
“We are starting to see higher temperatures earlier in the season,” said Dr Claire Bergin, researcher for the Wasitus project at the Icarus Climate Research Centre at Maynooth University.
“While this may come as a welcome few days by the beach for some, the fact is these record-breaking May temperatures were not possible without human-caused global warming. It is downright alarming to break 30 degrees in May in Ireland.”
Wasitus, which stands for Weather Attribution Science Irish Operational User Service, is a project aimed at rapidly assessing extreme weather events to understand what role climate change played.
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It is part of the World Weather Attribution (WWA) global network of climate scientists and meteorologists.
Paul Moore, a climatologist at Met Éireann which supports the project, said the temperature spikes in May, which came as ‘heat dome’ sat over much of Europe, showed the impact for Ireland of being part of a warmer world.
“To get a 2 degree-plus jump in record maximum temperatures in any month is remarkable and shows that we are now starting to push the boundaries ever wider compared to what we previously considered possible,” he said.
The Wasitus analysis found that a record exceedance of the scale experienced last month was a one-in-60 year event but would become more frequent at the current pace of climate change.
Mean temperatures over the five days were made twice as likely due to human-caused climate change and the high night-time temperatures were made three times more likely.
Attribution expert Clair Barnes of Imperial College London, which is part of the WWA network, said the study was further evidence that climate change was pushing hotter weather further north.
“It is now clear for everyone to see how quickly our norms are shifting,” she said.
“Ireland needs to adapt for higher temperatures to come.”
