On paper, Ulster would seem to have the toughest Heineken Cup opening, given that Cardiff have never failed to reach the quarterfinals and have been arguably the biggest thorn in Irish sides in this competition, winning all five head-to-heads against the provinces.
Ulster's European debut saw them lose 466 to Cardiff - still a record victory in the competition for the Welsh side. That was back in 1995, a time when many leading Irish players had flown the nest, and the attendance at Ravenhill for the Begles/Bordeaux game was about 2,500. Ulster have improved since then, but even allowing for the anticipated 12,500 capacity crowd, it is ominous that Cardiff remain the only side to have won in Munster.
Although new signing Peter Rogers isn't in the chosen 22, Cardiff will include at least a dozen internationals in their starting line-up, with another four on the bench.
Identifying where the scoring threats will come from is a mite more straightforward than preventing them. To go with his international world record, Neil Jenkins is the most prolific player in the European Cup's history with 352 points, and the Ginger Monster has already become the first player to reach a century in the Welsh/Scottish League after accumulating 126 points in six outings. Giving him any sighting of the posts within a 50 metre radius seems certain to be punished.
The hottest streak of any finisher in Europe finally came to a halt in last week's 27-26 defeat away to Glasgow Caledonians, when leftwinger Craig Morgan failed to score for the first time in 18 outings. Even so, his Cardiff tally of 49 tries in 60 games speaks for itself.
The arrival of the abrasive ex-Springbok Pieter Muller has further stiffened their defence. Unsurprisingly, he's none the worse for four stitches in his head, and aside from longer term casualties David Young and lock Steve Moore, Cardiff are close to full-strength with Canadian lock John Tait on the bench, while Rhys Williams and Craig Quinnell each had their first outing in months last week.
Nevertheless, their backs were fairly starved of possession last week and Cardiff doubters point to several examples of this team underperforming on big occasions, especially away from home - witness last year's limp quarter-final exit at Llanelli.
Their scrum much improved, Ulster should at least make this a highly competitive night. Recalling how their opening home loss to Wasps instigated a pointless campaign last season, and recognising this as possibly their most winnable game in an ultra-tough pool, Ulster's big game players - Andy Ward, Russell Nelson, David Humprheys and Ryan Constable - will give it their best. They'll need to.
ULSTER: G Henderson; J Topping, R Constable, J Bell, T Howe; D Humphreys (capt), B Free; J Fitzpatrick, R Weir, S Best, P Johns, G Longwell, R Nelson, T McWhirter, A Ward. Replacements - S Bell, N Malone, S Stewart, C Boyd, P Shields, M Blair, D Topping.
CARDIFF: R Williams; N Walne/G Thomas, J Robinson/G Thomas, P Muller, C Morgan; N Jenkins, R Howley (capt); S John, J Humphreys/A Lewis, G Powell, C Quinnell, M Voyle, G Kacala, O Williams, M Williams/D Baugh. Replacements - from P Jones, L Davies, M Rayer, R Powell, D Geraghty, I Jones, J Tait, E Lewis, W Fyvie.
Referee: Iain Ramage (Scotland).
European Cup records: Ulster - P27, W9, D1, L17, For 529, Ag 750, Tries 43-88. Cardiff - P25, W16, D1, L8, For 671, Ag 558, Tries 62-49.
Leading try scorers: Ulster - Jan Cunningham 7. Cardiff - Rob Howley 8.
Leading points scorers: Ulster - Simon Mason 200. Cardiff - Lee Jarvis 176.
Previous meetings: (95-96) Cardiff 46 Ulster 6.
Results this season: Ulster - LWLWL. Cardiff - WWWWWL.
Odds (Paddy Powers): 7/4 Ulster, 16/1 Draw, 2/5 Cardiff. Handicap odds (= Ulster +7pts) 10/11 Ulster, 20/1 Draw, 10/11 Cardiff.
Forecast: Ulster to win.
