Two rather significant factors should preclude the kind of brash celebration that will doubtless accompany the return of England's Premiership this afternoon. The first is the dismal showing of the England national team in the Low Countries at Euro 2000, the second, yesterday's death of the funder of the unlikely Premiership dream of Blackburn Rovers, Jack Walker.
One suspects, however, that by 8 p.m. on Monday night when Liverpool run out at Highbury we will already have experienced a long weekend of television-sponsored euphoria and controversy. Television hates inertia and therefore we will be encouraged to forget the regression in England's football under Kevin Keegan. After all, Sky did not cover Euro 2000 and anyway, the Premiership's about Bergkamp, Zola, Hasselbaink, not Gary Neville.
The death of Walker, meanwhile, sad in itself, will hardly be the signal for a bout of intelligent self-analysis about the state of the game and the perilous influence of big money. Too many contracts to be signed for that.
Walker, of course, was far from shy about buying and selling himself and was directly involved in the inflationary spiral - and all the finance did not prevent Blackburn's relegation - but he was also motivated by football for football's sake.
Walker at least saw Rovers achieve the ultimate of denying Manchester United a Premiership. Without Walker and Rovers, United would have won seven of the eight championships since the formation of the Premier League in 1992. As it is United have won six, in three clutches of two, Rovers in 1995 and Arsenal in 1998 interfering with the pattern of Old Trafford domination.
If the sequence was to continue, United would not win this season's title despite being odds-on favourites to do so and it was noticeable that in a Turf Accountant's office last Monday morning Chelsea's impressive 2-0 defeat of United in the Charity Shield the day before saw the London club cut from 6 to 1 to 4 to 1.
The bland nature of United's play last Sunday compared to Chelsea's vitality inspired a feeling that Gianluca Vialli may well have found the necessary ingredients - a regular goalscorer and a committed midfield - to mount a more serious challenge to United than was offered last season. A first Chelsea championship since 1955 and Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink would prove himself to be worth the u15 million £15 million sterling paid to Atletico Madrid.
Certainly Alex Ferguson sees Chelsea as as realistic challengers as any. "I can't see past the five," Ferguson said in reference to United, Arsenal Leeds, Liverpool and Chelsea, last season's top finishers. United have spent money only on recruiting Fabien Barthez for their first-team squad, though given they finished 18 points ahead of Arsenal in May, and 26 in front of Chelsea, Ferguson may not have felt the need to match the sort of outlay made at Chelsea and at Anfield.
Including the u11 million £11 million purchase of Emile Heskey from Leicester City in March, Gerard Houllier has spent u20 £20 million in five months with a further u7 million £7 million set to come for Middlesbrough's Christian Ziege. It is the kind of spending that gets managers sacked.
On the other hand Arsene Wenger has presided over a £17.8 million transfer profit this summer but Lauren Mayer u7.2 m) (£7.2 million) and Robert Pires (£6 million) look like the sort of smart purchases Wenger has specialised in at Highbury. At Leeds David O'Leary may have been equally shrewd with Olivier Dacourt and Mark Viduka, but he would need to be after the disappointment of Michael Duberry, Danny Mills and Jason Wilcox last year.
Leeds begin by hosting Everton - Paul Gascoigne and Duncan Ferguson, if fit, included. Walter Smith has credibility at stake. So, too, George Graham and his David Ginola-free Tottenham and John Gregory with Ginola added Aston Villa. Breaking into the big five is the challenge for them, and for Sunderland and Newcastle.
Avoiding the bottom three will concern Manchester City, Bradford City, Ipswich Town and Charlton Athletic. Of the four only Ipswich have not spent heavily. At Maine Road George Weah is earning around u50,000 £50,000 per week, one of the most bizarre signings of any season. It could be the price of success. Or of failure. At Blackburn, they discovered, it was both.
