Paris, December 12th: the group stage draw for Euro 2016 will take place. And Ireland will be there. Who would have thought it back in June? Or back in November? Or anytime really, until Shane Long blasted past Manuel Neuer last month.
But it wasn’t all a dream. Ireland did beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 last night (3-1 on aggregate) and Martin O’Neill’s side will be in the draw for next year’s finals.
It’s a brand new format too, with four pots of six teams – 24 teams in total – as opposed to the usual 16. That means there’s a better chance of qualifying for the knockout stages as the top two teams in each of the six groups, as well as the four best third placed team, will advance. Good news for Ireland.
Better news for Ireland is the fact that it’s quite unlikely Martin O’Neill’s team will be drawn into the same sort of ‘group of death’ that Giovanni Trapattoni’s were in 2012.
Four years ago Ireland were drawn with a Spain side who were the European Championship holders, the World Cup holders and quite possibly the best international football team ever to take to a pitch. Along with Spain was an Italy team that had won the World Cup just six years previously and were reaping the benefits of a fully in-the-mood and fully firing Mario Balotelli and a technically excellent Croatia side with Slaven Bilic at the helm.
Although all three of those teams will be in France next summer it won’t be possible to draw them all together as Italy and Croatia will both be in pot two.
The pots in full are as follows:
Pot One: France, Germany, Spain, England, Portugal and Belgium.
Pot Two: Italy, Russia, Switzerland, Austria, Croatia and Ukraine or Czech Republic (this depends on whether or not Ukraine advance from their play-off with Slovenia this evening. They're 2-0 up after the first leg).
Pot Three: Czech Republic or Turkey (depending on the result of the Ukraine game), Sweden or Denmark (Sweden are 2-1 up after the first leg between the two Scandinavian sides), Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary.
Pot Four: Turkey or Slovenia (if Slovenia beat Ukraine), Ireland, Iceland, Wales, Albania, Northern Ireland.
So a few of the seedings won’t be confirmed until after tonight’s final two play-off games but one thing for certain is that Ireland will be in pot four. This means that Martin O’Neill’s side can’t be drawn with Northern Ireland or Wales.
The teams with the best qualifying records from each of the pots are as follows.
England: Yes, England don't always perform at major tournaments. But what can't be discounted this time around is their remarkable qualifying record. Roy Hodgson's team won all 10 of their matches, scoring 31 goals and conceding just three. It can be argued that they had one of the easier groups – certainly easier than Ireland's qualifying group – but that record cannot be sniffed at. In the history of European Championship qualifying only five teams had previously won every game.
Austria: Apart from England, only Austria and Italy finished top of their groups with unbeaten records. The main difference however is that Austria won nine of their 10 games, while Italy only won seven. It's probably not something that bodes well for Ireland's 2018 World Cup qualifying campaign after being drawn in the same group as Austria, but we'll worry about that after the Euros.
And, make no mistake about it, the Austrians didn’t have any easy group. Marcel Koller’s team beat Russia, Montenegro, Liechtenstein and Moldova home and away, only slipping up against Sweden with a 1-1 draw. And that was their opening game. They’ve won every game since, scoring 21 goals in the process. Foreboding.
Czech Republic: Of the teams in pot three both Czech Republic and Slovakia achieved the best qualifying records with 22 points. It's fair to argue though that the Czechs had a tougher group – beating Iceland, Turkey, the Netherlands, Kazakhstan and Latvia to top spot in their group.
However, losses to Turkey and Iceland show that they’re definitely beatable.
So there’s the ‘group of death’ based purely on qualification form. On paper though the group to be avoided would surely be Spain, Italy and Poland or Sweden (assuming the Swedes advance past Denmark this evening).
But enough of that pessimism, let’s look at a group that we’d have a decent chance of advancing through. Here are the teams with the worst qualifying records in each of the pots.
Germany: Remember them? Of the teams in pot one Germany lost the most qualifying games thanks to the boot of Robert Lewandowski and, last month, the right foot of Shane Long. It's worth noting that, although Portugal's 21 points is one less than Germany's 22, Cristiano Ronaldo's side were in the group with five teams, meaning they played two games less than the Germans. Discarding points, games won and whatever else Germany are surely the most favourable draw from pot one simply because Ireland picked up four points from them in qualifying and will go into the game fully in the confidence of getting something from it.
Ukraine: This depends on whether or not Ukraine advance past Slovenia this evening but, after winning 2-0 in the first leg, they should do so.
Unsurprisingly, two of their three qualifying losses came against Spain but they also lost 1-0 at home against Slovakia. Indeed Slovakia beat them to second place by three points.
Of all the teams in pot two Ukraine look quite beatable.
Hungary: Denmark only amassed 12 points during qualifying, four less than Hungary, but they were in Group I, along with Portugal meaning they only played eight games. Also, Sweden are 2-1 up against the Danes after their play-off first leg, while Hungary have already advanced past Norway.
Drawn in what looked to be one of the easier qualifying groups Hungary lost to Northern Ireland before being beaten 4-3 by bottom-placed group Greece in their final game.
Ireland would surely be favourites going into 90 minutes with Pal Dardai’s team.
To cap it off then, the ‘group of death’ would be: Spain, Italy, Poland and Ireland.
And the most favourable group would be: Germany, Ukraine, Hungary and Ireland.
Do you agree? Let us know in the comments section.
