John Oxx faces an anxious week waiting on ground reports from Longchamp after describing Sinndar's ability to act on heavy ground as "the unknown factor" for Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
The double Derby winner is a 5 to 2 second favourite with Paddy Power, behind the 4 to 6 favourite Montjeu, for Europe's big, end-of-season showdown. But with a long-range forecast for unsettled weather, the Arc could yet again be run on a very soft surface.
That would suit Montjeu, who won the Arc on heavy ground last year, but Oxx can be less sure of Sinndar's liking for such conditions.
"All I know at the moment is the penetrometer at Longchamp is supposed to read 3.5, which is on the soft side without being very soft," Oxx said yesterday. "But the way Sinndar won the Prix Niel would encourage you to think that good to firm ground would be his favourite. Hopefully we can get the same in the Arc."
Describing the ground as a "very important factor", Oxx added: "It's a fact that the only time our fellow has been beaten was on heavy ground in the Ballysax at Leopardstown. He's a different horse now, but Montjeu can produce the same speed on the heavy as he can on fast ground. It doesn't impede his acceleration. I have to wonder if our horse can produce the same speed in heavy ground."
The Curragh trainer says the picture will become more clear later in the week, not only for Sinndar but also for Enzeli, who is being prepared for the Prix du Cadran. "If the ground gets very soft Enzeli will not run, but if it remains the way it is at the moment it shouldn't be a worry," said Oxx, who also plans to run the Flying Five and Greenlands Stakes winner Namid in the Group One Prix de l'Abbaye on Sunday.
Meanwhile, Ballinrobe's eight-race card is a long way from the likes of Longchamp, but the Mayo track does have the week to itself and presents an interesting clash in the two mile maiden hurdle.
Quadco has seen a racecourse only twice, but won both starts, including a 16 to 1 surprise in a Liverpool bumper last April. Pat Fahy's charge also won on the heavy at Sligo in June of last year and looks a horse of some potential.
Ranged against him today is the hardy and classy flat handicapper That's Logic, who should provide a serious challenge, but preference is for Quadco.
The Carlow-based Fahy sprang a surprise with the longshot Big Frank at Listowel during the week, so his string appear to be in form, a factor that makes the stamina-laden Kirmar and interesting prospect in the Beginners Chase.
Flying Boat got far from a clear run behind Euphoric at Listowel last week and may be worth an interest in the conditions race, while the consistent Okey Dorey can finally get his head in front in the second division of the six furlong maiden.
Betting: Prix de L'arc de Triomphe: (Paddy Power): 4/6 Montjeu, 5/2 Sinndar, 8 Samum, 12 Volveretta, 14 Egyptband, 25 Melikah.
