Irish Derby Preview:Kieren Fallon is on the verge of a little bit of history if Eagle Mountain can secure tomorrow's Budweiser Irish Derby but while the bookmakers reckon the Epsom runner-up is a clear favourite for Ireland's richest race it could be worth betting that Shamdinan will spoil the controversial jockey's party.
No jockey or trainer in the course of the Derby's 140-year history has ever won the race three times in a row but Fallon is on course for a remarkable hat-trick after Dylan Thomas last year and Hurricane Run in 2005.
On the face of it, Eagle Mountain has the most obvious form claims having chased home Authorized at Epsom and leading as he does a four-strong team from Aidan O'Brien's powerful stable.
Fallon has never wavered from his belief that Eagle Mountain is the Ballydoyle number one and he has also said that another clash with Authorized later in the year would be something he would look forward to.
When the six times champion expresses such confidence in a horse it usually pays to take heed and Fallon's huge band of supporters will need no further cue to support their hero, especially with the corruption trial awaiting him in the London High Court in September always in the background.
Certainly if goodwill from a sizable portion of the 30,000-strong crowd expected to turn up can propel a horse to victory then Eagle Mountain is an even hotter favourite than the shade of odds-on he currently stands at might suggest. On the face of it he should also be suited by the forecast soft ground which could get even more testing if the Curragh gets unlucky tomorrow.
"There are going to be some very, very heavy bursts around the country all through the weekend so hopefully we won't get any," said the Curragh manager Paul Hensey yesterday.
Soft ground in itself should be no problem to a colt able to win the Beresford by seven lengths here last year but a combination of testing conditions and a mile and a half might just press his stamina to breaking point.
That might seem an odd suggestion for an Epsom runner-up but Eagle Mountain was hardly gaining on Authorized in the closing stages and there is a suggestion he was simply running past beaten horses. If that's correct, then the €150,000 supplementary entry Boscobel will be fancied to step up and emulate Shareef Dancer 24 years ago who completed the King Edward VII-Irish Derby double.
Mark Johnston's horse will go on any ground but there's going to be no uncontested lead this time as there was at Ascot.
Soldier Of Fortune looks the clear number two of the Ballydoyle quartet but if Eagle Mountain is to be shaken up, the shakers could come with French accents.
The French have won the Derby four times since 1995 and Royal And Regal and Shamdinan present a decent chance for another Gallic flourish.
Shamdinan in particular looks interesting as he will bid to provide the Aga Khan with his own record sixth win in the race. With construction on the new €100 million Curragh complex going on, work the Aga provoked with his purchase of the Stand House Hotel, he, too, would be a popular winner and Shamdinan's chance isn't just based on sentiment.
A running-on third from an unpromising position in the French Derby, the horse from the family of the Oaks winner Shamadala, has form on the soft and is expected to relish the hike up to a mile and a half. Christophe Soumillon has had some mixed experiences in the Derby but freed from the pressure of riding the favourite, he will be a dangerous opponent and Shamdinan could well be the one that Fallon has to concentrate on most.
The main support event is the Group Two Railway Stakes that O'Brien has won eight times in the past 10 years with stars such as George Washington and Rock Of Gibraltar.
South Dakota appears to be the main Ballydoyle hope this time and his run in the Coventry can be ignored as he was badly drawn.
