Rarely has one decision appeared to have had such an impact. Ulster were flying. They had backed up a first win on French soil the season before with a double over Montpellier and indeed home and away wins over Leicester to stride into the quarter-finals unbeaten. They were at full strength with a sprinkling of world-class players. And then Jerome Garces sent off Jared Payne in the fifth minute against Saracens.

Even then, roared on by a home support nurturing a sense of injustice, Ulster nearly won; eventually succumbing 17-15. We’ll never know whether they would have won otherwise, but they’ll rarely have a better opportunity to reach a semi-final or indeed win the European Cup.

It was feared then that opportunity had passed the best team Ulster had assembled in the pro era, and increasingly this season that looks the case for this generation as well.

Scarcely seven months on, the ripple effects are still being felt, and never more so than this week. As was known, Johann Muller retired, while John Afoa and Tom Court moved. More seismically, David Humphreys was made an offer he couldn’t refuse by Gloucester and resigned as director of rugby in early June.

Destabilising effect

Following that, and no longer having Humphreys’ support, dissatisfaction amongst leading players led to Ulster ending Mark Anscombe’s two-year reign as head coach on June 31st despite having signed a year’s extension last February.

Les Kiss was made interim director of rugby until early October – and will resume the position permanently after the World Cup – when Neil Doak was made head coach and Allen Clarke was promoted to the ticket as forwards coach.

Such unrest on and off the pitch has had a predictably destabilising effect. Having won 19 of their previous 22 matches before the defeat to Saracens, Ulster have since won nine, drawn one, and lost nine. They go to the Ospreys in this evening’s televised Pro12 game resigned to a first Euro exit at the pool stages for five seasons, and before a Christmas goose has been cooked.

After an impressive League win at home to Glasgow in the first game after Doak was appointed full time, Ulster’s performances and results have fallen off badly.

Malfunctioning and misfiring before recovering to earn a bonus point away to Leicester was one thing, being outmuscled and beaten up at the breakdown by Toulon and their litany of battle-scarred veterans another.

But to lose so feebly away to the Scarlets last Sunday, with such an error-strewn performance lacking in spirit when their European Champions Cup lives were on the line, was nothing short of alarming.

Their former player and coach Willie Anderson, now a PE teacher at Sullivan Upper School, admits the reverberations from Payne’s sending off are still being felt.

“There’s been a fair degree of unrest for a while now and the wheels came off that day. Quite a few guys retired or moved on and David Humphreys moved on. He had been holding the whole thing together, he possibly saw the writing on the wall, and he got an offer he couldn’t refuse either, so good luck to him. But certainly last Sunday was one of the worst games I have seen this season, and by a long way.”

“I think you have maybe 15, 16, 17 players who can play at a high level for Ulster. However, once you go down underneath that, you really are struggling, and they will struggle.

Quality players

Obviously they’re not going to get out of their group and financially that’s not good for them, because you’re not going to be able to attract quality players or be able to afford quality players.”

There’s no doubt that last Sunday’s starting line-up compares less than favourably to the team which faced up to Saracens.

Franco van der Merwe has not filled the void left by Muller, although Ulster were unlucky in that new tight-head Wiehahn Herbst – who has been a boon for the Ulster scrum – was an addition to a lengthy casualty list featuring frontline players such as Payne, Andrew Trimble, Stuart Olding, Paddy Jackson, Chris Henry and Nick Williams.

All of which exposed the lack of strength in depth Anderson highlights. That said, Payne, Olding, Jackson and Henry were all present when Toulon bullied Ulster at Ravenhill.

“They have a game plan and they have players who are able to take it to a certain level but when it comes to the big guns, like Toulon and Clermont, or even Leinster or whoever, Northampton, they’re not in that bracket,” says Anderson.

That said, the Scarlets are not in that company either, although it should be noted they beat Leicester at home as well.

"Any side that plays against Ulster and Ian Humphreys is playing, they're going to target him, as Scarlets did last weekend, and even if Ulster do hide him, they're going to find where he's at and target him again," adds Anderson.

“So the quality is not there. The structure beneath it (the senior squad) is good but it’s not anywhere near the quality and level of Leinster in terms of producing new talent coming through.”

Top Four

So what’s the solution?

“The solution for me is that they need resources. Bryn Cunningham (team manager) has got a fairly big task on his hands bringing in quality players.

“If they get some of their injured players back they could end up in the top four of the Pro12, but they’re not going to cut it in Europe certainly this year and if they don’t change they’re not going to cut it in Europe next year either.”

“They need one or two quality signings to get them over this hump, and then get a bit more resources in bringing guys through at the bottom level. I think Best, Tuohy and others are playing well, but they’re limited then after that, and they miss Chris Henry’s presence.”

There was some validity in Stephen Ferris’s lament earlier in the week that the IRFU’s increasingly restrictive policies regarding overseas’ players (reducing them from five to four next season, including a special project) are not helping the provinces. Then again it was the Union which funded Humphreys’ recruitment drive of stellar names such as Pienaar, BJ Botha and Muller initially.

“I just don’t know about the structure of coaching as well,” adds Anderson. “Les Kiss is obviously a very good defensive coach and possibly an attack coach as well, but he doesn’t come back until after the World Cup.”

Hard core

With an expansion of Ulster’s fan base in the last few seasons, and with that an expansion of the Ravenhill/Kingspan Stadium capacity from 12,000 to 18,000, the timing of a temporary or longer-term drop-off in results could hardly be worse.

All the provinces can quickly discover the size of their hard core support when they hit the buffers.

Hence, all the more so after last Sunday’s performance, Doak must already be feeling under pressure, and Kiss faces a mountainous task and potentially mutinous situation.

One thing is for sure, if this season’s pool performances are to be Ulster’s standards for the next few years, they won’t be going far in Europe again any time soon either.