The blue riband of European club rugby comes to Dublin for the first time in a decade when the Aviva hosts the Heineken Cup final. As was the case 10 years ago, it is an all-French affair, so by rights perhaps we should call it the H Cup final today. A celebration of French rugby and of the redeveloped Lansdowne Road in all its glory, or not, awaits us.

Alas, this does not necessarily mean French flair, and not for the first time – nor the last one suspects – the Irish rugby community, Irish tourism board et al may be left pining for a roof over the Aviva. The forecast is horrendous, and given a static arm wrestle is much more likely to suit Toulon than Clermont, the weather Gods appear to be favouring Jonny Wilkinson and his global compatriots.

That 2003 final, when Toulouse beat Perpignan, lacked a sense of occasion due to an attendance of 28,600, but the ERC learned their lessons and today's finale is as close to a sell-out as makes little difference. The only Irish interest that day was Trevor Brenann, whereas this evening's is confined to Alain Rolland. The one-time Leinster and Irish scrumhalf of French descent is, of course, a perfect choice, for as one French wag observed he can speak in French to the Clermont players, and in English to Toulon's.

Irish supporters won't be as disinterested as a decade ago, with the Red, White and Blue 'tricolore' of Munster, Ulster and Leinster liable to swell les jaunards' 10,000-plus Yellow Army, not least through Clermont having met Irish opposition a dozen times in the last six seasons.

They play an altogether more thrilling brand of rugby, and aside from all the goodwill going their way, Clermont have been knocking on the door for years. Ala Leinster, Munster and others, they have served their time, and by rights their time should be now.

Common denominator
And yet the feeling of many good judges that a final might suit Toulon temperamentally and technically will have been re-enforced by the weather forecast. In an all-French Amlin final, two Top 14 semi-finals and a final last season, not one try was scored, and the virtual common denominator in those four gallic affairs was Toulon, who played in three of them.

It gets better, or worse depending on your viewpoint. In this season’s Heineken Cup quarter-final and semi-final wins over Leicester and Saracens, Toulon have neither conceded nor scored a solitary try. That means their last five knock-out games have been tryless affairs, with Wilkinson scoring all of their 90 points through 27 penalties and three drop goals. (Eh, it’s 8/1 for no try scorer, by the by.)

Not even Clermont find it easy to disengage from an arm wrestle. Toulon won last season’s Top 14 semi-final meeting 15-12, Clermont just about preserving their long winning run at Stade Marcel Michelin last November by 24-21 via a controversial penalty in overtime by Brock James before sending a second team to Marseilles in March and obtaining a highly creditable 26-all draw.

All of which points to another tight affair, all the more so given Bernard Laporte’s signature selection in the backrow. Steffon Armitage has had another fantastic season, and features highly in most of Toulon’s Amlin Opta Index, be it try assists, carries, metres made, turnovers and tries, yet with the arrival from Japanese rugby of Springbok flanker Danie Rossouw in February, the English flanker has been relegated to the bench for the semi-final and now the final.

Alongside Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, a proper warrior if ever there was one, Rossouw provides as much ballast as Armitage but also another lineout option and, typical of a Laporte team, a huge scrummaging presence behind Bakkies Botha and Carl Hayman. The pressure coming through on Thomas Domingo will be akin to a Panzer.

The degree to which Wilkinson or Matt Giteau calls the shots will determine Toulon’s approach, so don’t expect much of the gifted Australian. Aside from his penalties and drop goals, no one has kicked the ball out of hand more (70) in the tournament than Wilkinson. Unremittingly physical at the breakdown and the collisions, Toulon will play territory and play for three-pointers. The nature of a final and the forecast looks tailor made for them.

There are likely to be plenty of scrums and close-in collisions, with less scope for Clermont to employ their superior running game and width, and bring in the electric running and offloading of Wesley Fofana and their roving wingers Sitiveni Sivivatu and Napolioni Nalaga. Yet, crucially, their leader, Aurelien Rougerie, is back.

It is liable to be brutal, and fierce and intense and tight and, perhaps, in its own way compelling viewing.

Clermont stand on the verge of becoming the first team to win all nine matches in one campaign. They have been the tournament's best team, and history shows us the best team invariably wins the H Cup.
CLERMONT: L Byrne; S Sivivatu, A Rougerie (capt), W Fofana, N Nalaga; B James, M Parra; T Domingo, B Kayser, D Zirakashvili, J Cudmore, N Hines, J Bonnaire, G Vosloo, D Chouly. Replacements: T Paulo, V Debaty, C Ric, J Pierre, J Bardy, L Radosavljevic, D Skrela, R King.
TOULON: D Armitage; R Wulf, M Bastareaud, M Giteau, A Palisson; J Wilkinson (capt), S Tillous-Borde; A Sheridan, S Bruno, C Hayman, B Botha, N Kennedy, D Rossouw, J M Fernandez Lobbe, C Masoe. Replacements: J Charles Orioli, G Jenkins, D Kubriashvili, J Van Niekerk, S Armitage, M Mermoz, F Michalak, J Suta.
Referee: A Rolland (Ireland).
Betting (Paddy Powers): 8/13 Clermont, 18/1 draw, 6/4 Toulon.
Forecast: Clermont to win.