If Ireland beat Lithuania this evening the team is virtually assured of a place in the play-offs as the second placed team from Group Eight. In the event of points being equal at the conclusion of the qualifying phase, the second placed team will first be decided on goal difference. At the moment we have a plus 13 goal difference as against plus three for Lithuania and Ireland's advantage would obviously by increased by at least two in the event of a victory today.

While a point against Romania might be required to make second place certain it would take an astonishing combination of results in that match and the one involving Lithuania in Macedonia to reverse our current positions in the table.

A draw this evening would leave Mick McCarthy's team requiring a win in Dublin next month to be sure of progressing although, in the event of a draw or Macedonian victory of less than eight goals in Skopje, a point against Romania would be good enough for us.

Whatever happens in the remaining Group Eight games, Ireland would need a miraculous combination of results in other groups for us to take the automatic qualifying spot as the best second placed team from all the groups. The remaining eight runners up go into play-offs draw.

The automatic berth will be calculated on the basis of performances against the teams which finish first, third and fourth in each group and the fact that we have lost to Romania and Macedonia and drawn with Lithuania makes it virtually impossible for us to qualify this way.

England are currently the best second placed team although a defeat next month in Italy (or even possibly against Moldova this evening) would leave them vulnerable to being overtaken by several teams including Scotland, Russia and Yugoslavia.

Craig Brown's team currently lead Group Four but may well be overtaken by Austria who have a game in hand and two games against Belarus to come.