Jim Bolger
has a notable history of shock Oaks winners and the veteran trainer will hope to upset the odds again with Turret Rocks at the Curragh on Saturday.
Not that Turret Rocks goes into the Darley Irish Oaks as any no-hoper: a Group Two winner as a juvenile, and Group One placed, she wasn’t far off the outstanding Minding in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas, after which Bolger conceded he may have left her preparation a bit short.
However it is a sign of the colossal strength in depth of Aidan O’Brien’s 2016 three-year- old filly team that he can bypass the chance of an Oaks double with Minding and still send in an overwhelming favourite for Saturday’s race in Even Song.
Last month’s Ribblesdale Stakes winner leads a four- strong Ballydoyle challenge that bookmakers clearly believe have it within them to give O’Brien a fifth victory in the €400,000 classic.
And on straightforward form it is hard to disagree. Even Song had three of her four cross-channel-based rivals behind her at Royal Ascot, including both her closest market rivals, the supplemented pair of Architecture and Ajman Princess.
Improvement
On pedigree Even Song has every chance of further improvement; she has the assistance of
Ryan Moore
on her back again, and it is only two years since O’Brien saddled Bracelet to complete the Ribblesdale-Irish Oaks double.
But if the odds might suggest something of a fait accompli, there are other factors that suggest otherwise. Even at the top of the international flat racing tree there is a reluctance to toss around supplementary fees for the sake of it, and both the Architecture and Ajman Princess camps haven’t hesitated to pony up €40,000 each to give their charges another crack at the favourite.
Part of that may be to do with how overseas challengers have won the Oaks in six of the last seven years, but perhaps more to do with how Even Song looked to get the run of the Ribblesdale when many others didn’t.
Architecture for one never looked happy in the race, which did come relatively quickly after she chased home Minding in the Epsom Oaks, a performance that the handicapper at least still believes was superior to what Even Song did at Ascot.
Frankie Dettori again teams up with Architecture, while her trainer Hugo Palmer also saddles We Are Ninety under Pat Smullen, a link with particular resonance since they combined to win the Oaks 12 months ago with Covert Love.
Good form
“We Are Ninety has the same draw and the similarities don’t stop there,” Palmer has pointed out.
“Physically, they look very similar, both won their first races as three-year-olds at Chelmsford and Covert Love also won a listed race before she won the Irish Oaks. Both of mine are in good form and have good chance, in what I believe is an open race.”
If Palmer believes it is more open than the betting suggests he won’t be alone, and it looks significant that Bolger too will also be doubly represented.
An Cailin Orga has a classic pedigree to die for and Stellar Mass proved with his Derby third three weeks ago that ratings aren’t everything.
But it’s still hard not to conclude that at a general 12-1 Turret Rocks could be a value bet.
It depends on dismissing a dismal performance at Epsom, but she would hardly be the first to find that track tough to act on, especially on ground she didn’t like.
Good ground or better around the Curragh could be preferable and she does sport a first-time tongue-strap.
It is 14 years since the last major Irish Oaks upset and it was Bolger who provided it with the 33-1 Margarula.
Even that paled in comparison to Jet Ski Lady’s famous 50-1 shocker at Epsom in 1991.
And it's interesting how Bolger declined an invitation for last week's Belmont Oaks with Turret Rocks, which theoretically looked an easier option to this.
New York would have guaranteed quick ground. If it stays decent at the Curragh – and the forecast appears encouraging – Turret Rocks can legitimise those excuses earlier in the season with a memorable success, all of 33 years after Bolger first won the classic with Give Thanks.
