RUGBY / Heineken Cup / Munster v Dragons: Even when they win, Munster can't win. Having been criticised when turning down three-pointers from beginning to end in the defeat to Ulster, they were roundly condemned for not chasing tries and a bonus point with more gusto away to the Dragons last week.
Perhaps negotiating a middle ground wouldn't hurt.
Scoring tries and obtaining bonus points is not an especially new hurdle for Munster. Three times in their pool games last season, Munster were even more favourably placed than they were last week, with two tries in the bag by the break, but on each occasion they failed to add to it and in the final analysis came up one point short of a home quarter-final and were instead sent to the Basque country.
Yet, one has only to go back to their 18-10 win over Harlequins at Twickenham last season to see how the advance demand for a bonus win clouded their judgment. Even against Castres here at the end of October they turned down a three-pointer in first-half injury time in their haste to obtain a fourth try and a bonus point by the interval. They failed and had to be patient, and you sense patience could be their biggest virtue today.
Save for Alan Gaffney's tactical coup in skinning the Stade Français defence two seasons ago, when Mike Mullins provided, not for the first time, the cutting edge, Munster have had to work harder than most for their tries, witness eight different scorers this season - five of them forwards.
As reflects a pack who scent the try line much like animals at feeding time, their maul is their most potent weapon. They don't have the pace in the backs to score long-range tries. Although the sole change to the starting line-up sees the return of Shaun Payne, this is unlikely to change today.
Some of the cognoscenti in these parts have always felt that Munster's proud unbeaten run at Thomond Park in the cup, currently at 22 wins over 10 years, and 26 consecutive home victories in either Cork or Limerick in the cup, will fall when not expected, like against opponents who, without pressure to win and inspired by the prized scalp on offer can afford to swing from the hip. Much like the Dragons today.
They'll surely seek to play with tempo and width, and ensure as little pattern as possible. Should Munster go down this route in their pursuit of a bonus point? Hardly. The last thing Munster need to do is give the Dragons any early encouragement.
"We're going to need our heads screwed on," ventured coach Declan Kidney yesterday. The Dragons' half-dozen changes might suggest they've thrown their hat at it, but Hal Luscombe and Jonathan Bryant should stiffen the midfield.
Kidney doesn't want an impressive looking Dragons bench being unloaded with the game in the balance and, citing the recall of Luke Charteris, suggests Munster will do well to win 100 per cent of their own lineout ball and pilfer five of the Dragons' throws again. "If that's the case we're going to have more defending to do."
Hence, even establishing the kind of set-piece supremacy which last week allowed David Wallace, Denis Leamy and Anthony Foley to dominate, cannot be taken as a given.
Nor will there be the same hint of fear which has prompted some of the great occasions in this bear pit. After the lengthy build-up and amid all the Santa hats, there might be a bit of ho-ho-ho giddiness in the air as well.
Most likely Munster will have to give the crowd something to get their teeth into. Yes, last week's virtuoso performance by the pack points conclusively to a conclusive home win. If they are two tries and points up on the scoreboard a bonus point should be chased with gusto. But only then.
MUNSTER: S Payne; J Kelly, G Connolly, T Halstead, A Horgan; R O'Gara, P Stringer; M Horan, J Flannery, J Hayes, D O'Callaghan, M O'Driscoll, D Leamy, D Wallace, A Foley (capt). Replacements: D Fogarty, F Pucciariello, T Hogan, S Keogh, T O'Leary, J Manning, B Murphy.
NEWPORT GWENT DRAGONS: A Thomas; G Chapman, H Luscombe, J Bryant, R Fussell; C Sweeney, G Baber; A Black, S Jones, G Robinson, I Gough, L Charteris, R Oakley, J Ringer, R Bryan (capt). Replacements: D Maddocks, R Thomas, P Sidoli, M Owen, G Cooper, K Morgan, C Warlow.
Referee: Chris White (England).
Previous meetings: (00-01) Munster 26 Newport 18; Newport 24 Munster 39.(05-06) Dragons 8 Munster 24.
Formguide: Munster - 13-27 v Sale (a); 42-6 v Castres (h); 24-8 v Dragons (a). Dragons - 24-29 v Castres (a); 11-38 v Sale (h); 8-24 v Munster (h).
Leading try scorers: Munster - Sheahan, Flannery, O'Callaghan, Horgan, Halstead, Kelly, Horan, Leamy 1 each. Dragons - Gareth Wyatt 2.
Leading points scorers: Munster - Ronan O'Gara 33. Dragons - Craig Warlow 18.
Odds (Paddy Powers): 1/50 Munster, 20/1 Draw, 12/1 Dragons. Handicap betting (= Dragons + 24pts) 10/11 Munster, 25/1 Draw, 10/11 Dragons.
Forecast: Munster to win.
Munster v Dragons
Thomond Park, Saturday, 5.15
On TV: RTÉ 2, Sky Sports 1
