HEINEKEN CUP: WASPS v LEINSTER:A MOMENT of truth then, for the boys in blue. While that defeat to Castres is done and dusted now, it has given Leinster less room for manoeuvre than they would have had. Victory today would still ensure qualification, and also leave them well-placed for a home quarter-final, but a defeat would endanger their hopes of progress and could seriously derail their season. It's that big a game.
There is a scenario whereby a bonus point defeat, while also denying Wasps a bonus point, would leave Leinster top of the group by dint of the teams’ head-to-head record, and therefore at least with their destiny in their hands.
In reality though, an unseemly last-day scramble for survival would be a poor effort from what should have been an eminently winnable pool, whereas nothing would exorcise the ghosts of Castres better than a win at England’s rugby headquarters.
Twickenham, even with a slightly surreal lower tier limit of 30,000 on the attendance, ought, in theory, to be a better setting for their litany of Test stars than the rather remote setting of Adams Park. Just think of their close-season heavy hitters Rocky Elsom and CJ van der Linde. Twickers ought to tickle their fancy, and ditto Brian O’Driscoll et al.
There is, alas, a doubt about both van der Linde (foot) and Stanley Wright (back). Neither trained on Thursday, and not only are Cian Healy and Ollie le Roux on stand-by, but Ronnie McCormack has travelled as well.
The absence of either, but especially the Springbok, would dilute the Leinster scrum.
But even more pertinent to the outcome, perhaps, is Michael Cheika’s decision to go for Isa Nacewa at outhalf rather than Felipe Contepomi.
“We had a plan in mind after coming back from the Castres game,” re-iterated Cheika yesterday, clearly indicating that Contepomi’s desultory and error-prone second-half performance in that defeat has not been forgotten, “and we’ve played that way for the last three weeks. We think it’s the best combination of players.”
Since that hammering in the RDS, Wasps have won eight of their last 10 matches, albeit without setting the world alight. Not only then do Wasps have a whiff of cordite in their nostrils from the first game, but they’ve also a sniff of silverware thanks to Leinster’s defeat in Castres.
They have restored Josh Lewsey to the wing at the expense of Tom Voyce, which may hint at a more cautious and safer counter-kicking game from their back three, though against that they’ve rolled the dice by restoring Danny Cipriani to outhalf.
While two loose-ish cannons at outhalf promises plenty of fun and games, the better defence will probably win this one and Leinster have to rediscover their dynamism in the collisions of that October meeting. Jamie Heaslip, for one, needs to re-assert himself as a ball-carrier, and Shane Jennings is due a big game on a big stage.
They look to have the self-belief to do it, and they’re well capable of it, though you can’t help but feel that that Castres defeat will yet bite them in their rears.
LONDON WASPS:M van Gisbergen; P Sackey, D Waldouck, R Flutey, J Lewsey; D Cipriani, E Reddan; T Payne, R Webber, P Vickery (capt), S Shaw, R Birkett, J Worsley, S Betsen, J Haskell. Replacements: J Ward, T French, G Skivington, D Leo, J Simpson, D Walder, T Voyce.
LEINSTER:R Kearney; S Horgan, B O'Driscoll, F Contepomi, L Fitzgerald; I Nacewa, C Whitaker; S Wright or C Healy, B Jackman, CJ Van Der Linde or O le Roux, L Cullen (capt), M O'Kelly, R Elsom, S Jennings, J Heaslip. Replacements: J Fogarty, C Healy, T Hogan, S O'Brien, C Keane, G D'Arcy, G Dempsey.
Referee:Christophe Berdos (France).
Previous meetings:(2006-07) q-f Wasps 34 Leinster 13; (2008-09) Leinster 41 Wasps 11.
Results so far: Wasps: 25-11 v Castres (h); 11-41 v Leinster (a); 25-16 v Edinburgh (a); 19-11 v Edinburgh (h). Leinster: 27-16 v Edinburgh (a); 41-11 v Wasps (h); 33-3 v Castres (h); 15-18 v Castres (a).
Forecast:Wasps to win.
