It's nine years since Michael Kinane picked up Pat Eddery's leftover and won the Derby. What he wouldn't give not to know how Eddery felt come four o'clock today.

Instead of an obvious odds-on favourite and a relative dark horse back in 1993, Derby 2002 could turn into an eyeball between two high profile colts that see each other every morning at Ballydoyle.

Hawk Wing and High Chaparral have dominated the betting to such an extent that the pre-race debate has centred on the jockey dilemma.

It is long odds-on that Aidan O'Brien will win with one of them and only marginally better odds that for the first time since 1946, one trainer will saddle the first two home.

Kinane's decision to plump for the speed horse, the colt who was widely proclaimed as an unlucky 2,000 guineas loser, has only barely shaken the confidence of those who believe that High Chaparral is the more natural derby candidate.

And whatever dent Kinnane's pick made has been more than repaired by the persistent showers that have turned the famous racecourse a squelchy "soft".

Kinane's own confidence in Hawk Wing's stamina lasting long enough to allow him use his undoubted acceleration can hardly have been helped by the damp weather still hanging over Surrey.

Yesterday's action centred getting to the stands rail as quickly as possible and it could yet mean a Derby finish in the shadow of the stands. Last night's weather will have been crucial as O'Brien admitted after the Oaks.

"We will have to see what the weather does. The ground is not ideal but we will have a try" he said.

Hardly confidence-inspiring stuff, but while the worry lines gather on Kinane's face, John Murtagh is in the perfect "first sub" position of little pressure with a very real chance.

It is the Meath rider's sixth Derby ride and he has already benefited from Ballydoyle's largesse this season with Rock Of Gibraltar's 2,000 guineas success.

Hawk Wing was second in that Guineas, but for a horse who O'Brien has said would have the speed for the July Cup, it is a huge task to try and last out a mile-and-a-half.

"Hawk Wing and High Chapparal came out of their last races very well and we will just have to wait and see about the trip. You can never be sure they can do it until they do it," O'Brien said yeserday.

High Chaparral's credentials on breeding and style of racing suggest we can be more sure about him lasting out a true run mile-and-a-half in testing conditions.

He has followed the Gallileo route of the Ballysax and Derrinstown stakes and exhibited real brilliance for the first day. Those cribbing the second outing ignore a good time and the undeniable impression there was loads left.

Of the opposition, the Maktoum family run five while Mark Johnston fills the role of plucky underdog, with the supplemented pair, Bandari and Fight Your Corner.

Both have soft ground form and although Bandari was the flashy 13 lengths winner of the Lingfield trial, homework since suggests Fight Your Corner could be the each-way bet of the race.

Frankie Dettori has described Naheef as his best chance ever of breaking the Epsom Derby's hoodoo that has plagued him ever since first riding in the race ten years ago.

Considering the talents of Cape Verdi (1998) and Dubai Millennium (1999) that is some statement, maybe the more surprising by Naheef's very ordinary effort in the Guineas.

Jamie Spencer, 22 today, fills the super sub role for Godolphin on the Dante winner, Moon Ballad, whose front-running style means his stamina will be tested to the limit.

That is unlucky for him since Derby 2002 will be all about stamina. Kinane had the pick of probably the two best horses in the race, but he may well have been out-guessed by the elements. Either way, however, Epsom looks set to cheer a third Irish winner in a row.

1st, High Chaparral; 2nd, Hawk Wing; 3rd, Fight Your Corner.

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