Gordon Elliott still insists he has "no chance" of dethroning Willie Mullins as Ireland's champion trainer but , after Death Duty's victory in the first Grade 1 of 2017 at Naas on Sunday, few others will be so adamant.
If the easy narrative is that Grade 1s are Mullins’s preserve – with Elliott mopping up lucrative handicap chase pots to preserve his championship lead – then Death Duty turned it on its head in the €90,000 Lawlor’s Hotel Novice Hurdle when armed with the greatest imponderable of all: luck.
Mullins’s day didn’t get off to the best start when the 8-15 novice chase favourite American Tom fell at the fourth last; it didn’t get any better as Augusta Kate took a crashing fall at the final flight of the big race as she challenged Death Duty.
Elliott's 5-6 favourite looked to hold a slight advantage at the time and he stretched noticeably clear of Mullins's other runner Turcagua in the closing stages. But, as Elliott himself pointed out, it can be hard to know what Augusta Kate's jockey Ruby Walsh has left in the locker.
Augusta Kate did show enough to see her Cheltenham odds halved to 16-1 for the Neptune Novice Hurdle and time may show she was running a superb race before taking her tumble.
Bright prospects
Elliott once got into trouble with Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary for describing a promising young prospect as an “aeroplane”. He has been reluctant since to hype any of O’Leary’s Gigginstown Stud team even if his judgment was proved spot on when that prospect matured into the Gold Cup hero, Don Cossack.
However when quizzed about Death Duty he conceded: “Of all the good horses we’ve had, none has been as good as him over hurdles.”
As billing goes that’s pretty high and it was no surprise to see bookmakers making the son of Shantou a 9-4 favourite for the three-mile Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham.
“It’s a long way to go to Cheltenham but if it was tomorrow, I’d say it will be the Albert Bartlett,” Elliott added. “He’s very good and he has a lovely way about him. Nothing fazes him. I don’t know if they went fast enough there. He’s a real three-mile stayer.”
However attempts to get him similarly effusive about his own title chances were doomed. “No chance, no chance!” he grinned.
With Bryan Cooper injured, Jack Kennedy stepped in for the Death Duty ride and just 11 days after notching his first Grade 1 on Outlander in the Lexus, the 17-year-old rider quickly secured a second.
However, Kennedy had to settle for last of the three finishers on board Stone Hard in the novice chase, which was won in good style by Some Plan.
Hot ticket for Cheltenham
If much of the post-race focus centred on American Tom's performance, and the report that he was coughing afterwards, Some Plan impressed in the ease with which he travelled the course under David Mullins. He remains a 20-1 shot for Cheltenham's Arkle.
“It wasn’t a graded race but it was a hot race on paper,” the jockey said. “He’s still a big baby for an old horse and when he does start to learn he’ll take a fair bit of beating over two miles. When he puts it all together he could be a Cheltenham horse.”
Former champion trainer Noel Meade saddled a first and last race double with Art of Security overhauling Turbojet in the maiden hurdle and Red Jack getting the better of Debuchet in the bumper.
