Celtic League/ Connacht v Dragons: On the face of it, this mightn't seem the most high-profile or attractive game of their six in a row at home for Connacht, but it could well be the most important come the season's end.
At the risk of repeating the mantra, it is games such as these which could well determine whether Connacht earn a tilt at next season's Heineken European Cup via the play-off route.
It was that route which the Dragons earned as best of the last-placed Scottish, Welsh or Irish sides last season, only to blow their tie against Overmach Parma. But on early evidence, once again they look the most vulnerable of the Welsh quartet for that 24th place in the next season's premier European competition.
Connacht could do with a four-point haul as well, having failed to win any of their last four home games, as these would leave them well placed from the first phase of the season prior to their European Challenge Cup campaign. Victory for the Dragons, two places but only point behind Michael Bradley's team, would propel them above Connacht and they would still have two games in hand.
However, Connacht did complete a double over the Dragons last season and the Welsh side are not the best on their travels, having lost on their last eight visits to Ireland since beating Ulster 28-21 at Ravenhill on October 8th, 2004.
The Connacht side show two changes from that which started against Leinster last week. Unsurprisingly, after his late cameo helped Connacht earn a bonus point against Ulster, Paul Warwick comes into the side in the centre and Brett Sturgess starts in the frontrow.
Warwick will start at outside centre, with Darren Yapp moving to the left wing and Keith Matthews moving to the bench. Sturgess will make his third start of the season, coming in to the side at tighthead as Ireland A prop Ray Hogan moves to loosehead, with Brett Wilkinson included among the replacements.
The Dragons have made two changes to the starting XV that defeated Guinness Premiership side Northampton last weekend. Gareth Wyatt is ruled out with a rib injury, so Richard Fussell is selected, while prop Rhys Thomas is suffering from a chest injury and is replaced by Lee Harrison. American international duo Mike Hercus and Paul Emerick rejoined the Dragons squad on Tuesday after being on international duty and they are named on the replacements bench.
"Connacht away will be an extremely difficult match," commented head coach Paul Turner. "They are a credit to the Magners League and are capable of beating anyone on their day. They have a very good record in the European Challenge Cup competition and always make good progress in the competition. They are very good on their own patch and know how to play the conditions in what can sometimes be a windy place.
"They have some very good players who are well coached and know how to win games. We have to be spot on with the things we do and we will have to play really well if we are to win."
At Sportsground, 6.30pm
CONNACHT: D Riordan; M Mostyn, P Warwick, G Williams, D Yapp; M McHugh, C Keane; R Hogan, J Fogarty (capt), B Sturgess, D Gannon, A Farley, J Muldoon, R Ofisa, C Rigney. Replacements: A Flavin, B Wilkinson, M Swift, B O'Connor, T Tierney, K Matthews, T Robinson.
DRAGONS: K Morgan; R Fussell, N Brew, A Smith, A Brew; C Sweeney, G Cooper; A Black, B Daly, L Harrison, I Gough, P Sidoli, C Charvis, J Ringer, N Fitisemanu. Replacements: K Crawford, J Corsi, L Charteris, M Owen, P Emerick, M Hercus, A Walker.
Referee: Andrew Macpherson (SRU).
Previous meetings: (03-04) Dragons 28 Connacht 19; Connacht 14 Dragons 32; (04-05) Connacht 19 Dragons 14; Dragons 24 Connacht 19; (05-06) Dragons 27 Connacht 19; Connacht 15 Dragons 10.
Form guide: Connacht: W W L D L L. Dragons: W L L W.
Leading points scorers: Connacht: Mark McHugh 66. Dragons: Ceri Sweeney 53.
Leading try scorers: Connacht: Matt Mostyn 3, Paul Warwick 2. Dragons: Aled Brew 3.
Forecast: Connacht to win.
