The strategist Frank Luntz invented the phrase ‘’climate change’' for the George W Bush administration in the US; ‘’while global warming has catastrophic communications attached to it, climate change sounds a more controllable and less emotional challenge’', he advised.
Almost 20 years on a warming world is increasingly looking dangerously uncontrollable. This has not been helped by a turbulent 2022 for geopolitics and energy costs.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has rattled Europe and the western world. It is impacting on a vast number of people away from the cauldron of war. They are wrestling with an energy crisis that comes with appalling uncertainty. High gas and electricity prices are combining with rising inflation and soaring interest rates, resulting in a cost-of-living calamity for many.
It has exposed Ireland’s weak energy security due to heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, while a combination of increasing electricity demand and lack of generation capacity has increased the possibility of power cuts this winter.
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For many developing world countries soaring food prices and shortages of basic commodities has brought heightened risk of famine, which is already hitting the Horn of Africa. Invariably these are places vulnerable to extreme weather events made worse by global warming.
This unexpected set of circumstances risks diverting global attention to worsening climate disruption. The Northern Hemisphere this summer witnessed unrelenting heatwaves, wildfires and extreme flooding demonstrably made worse by climate change. It is knocking off course efforts to scale up renewables and get off fossil fuels.
It is casting a shadow over the Cop27 climate negotiations in Egypt hosted by the UN during November, though it is an opportunity to reassert commitments to key Paris Agreement targets and for economies to double down on pursuing sustainability.
There is much unfinished business from Cop26 in Glasgow which, if signed off, would lift the mood music. This includes confronting “loss and damage” ie supporting countries already experiencing climate impacts, and gearing up green finance mechanisms. This will only be possible if states avoid getting mired in a blame game.
There have been significant wins; increasing number of countries are committing to more ambitious climate targets. War has not derailed scale up of wind and solar or the switch from coal, even it has changed timelines.
Big power blocks have led the way, notably the EU, while US president Joe Biden has managed to finally get the Inflation Reduction Act across the line, which he described as the “biggest step forward on climate ever”.
There is progress in getting off oil and gas but it is too uneven. Separately, war has concentrated minds, now acutely aware of the need for accelerated roll-out of renewables and less reliance on autocratic regimes for energy.
That uneven performance pattern is mirrored in Ireland, a country not in a position to say when its emissions will peak let alone halve by 2030. It, nonetheless, has ambitious targets matching global leaders; a robust Climate Act, and a carbon budget process with potential to drive change.
We have, however, used up too much of our first carbon budget (2021-2025). There is no room for further delays on action across all sectors.
On a happier note, needless restrictions on solar that hindered scale-up of solar have been unblocked. It means unlimited numbers of PV panels can be installed on houses, farm buildings, schools, community centres and non-domestic buildings without planning permission – with some restrictions near airports and hospitals with helipads.
A report by MaREI research centre at UCC concluded 1 million homes had the potential for six solar panels. A typical household in Dublin with six (2.4 kW) solar panels could generate over one third of their annual electricity and save €380 a year in electricity bills, with the system paying back for itself in seven years. Current market trends suggest an even quicker payback.
Policymakers, politicians, government departments and State bodies are engaged in addressing the interlinked crises on climate, biodiversity loss and energy but collaboration, adoption of known solutions and innovation are not sufficiently to the fore.
In contrast, the corporate world is fully embracing the sustainability agenda – even if greenwashing by some is all too evident. The same applies to small businesses, communities, progressive farmers, major food co-ops and individuals.
“There is real understanding of the urgency of the topic even if people don’t fully understand the complexity,” Dr Katharine Steentjes of Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations at Cardiff University noted at the recent Environment Ireland conference.
Opinion polls confirm repeatedly the public’s wish for bolder action but the delivery system in Ireland continues to be painfully slow.
