Main Points
- We are in the final few days of the Dublin Central and Galway West byelection campaigns
- Voting takes place from 7am to 10pm on Friday and with crowded fields of candidates in both constituencies transfers are set to be decisive
- Counting starts on Saturday morning with results expected by early evening
- Fine Gael are prioritising the campaign in Galway where its candidate Seán Kyne is in the hunt for the seat
- Sinn Féin may concentrate its attention on Dublin Central where Janice Boylan led last week’s poll but will face a stiff challenge for the seat from the Social Democrats’Daniel Ennis
Key Reads
- What are voters’ five big issues in Dublin Central and Galway West byelections?
- Four things to watch in the last week of campaigning
- Investigation: Suspicious betting on Gerry Hutch in Dublin Central byelection
- Janice Boylan leads Dublin Central byelection race with Gerry Hutch in third, poll shows
- Fine Gael, Independent Ireland, Labour in strongest contention for Galway West seat – poll
Frustrations in Dublin Central Sinn Féin heartland
Political Correspondent Jack Horgan Jones was out and about with Sinn Féin and Fine Gael canvassers last week, and recalled the adage from former taoiseach and Dublin Central TD Bertie Ahern who used to tell his charges it was best to campaign with the sun on your back.
The teams from Sinn Féin and Fine Gael that fanned out across different parts of the constituency midweek enjoyed a bit of fine weather – although both had to contend with squalling rain and cold winds.
In Cabra, more recent words from Ahern were dominating headlines after the former taoiseach’s comments on immigration were covertly recorded during a canvass by Fianna Fáil.
The Irish Times’ polling shows that immigration is the third most important issue for voters in Dublin Central, cited by 12 per cent of voters in the constituency.
The cost of living (33 per cent) and house prices (24 per cent) far eclipse immigration as a concern. However, it does outscore health, the economy, and law and order in voter concerns.
Four things to watch in last few days of campaigning
Candidates and their parties are in their final days of campaigning in the Dublin Central and Galway West byelections.
With crowded fields of candidates in both constituencies and transfers certain to be decisive, every preference is precious, writes Political Editor Pat Leahy.
The margins between success and failure could be wafer thin, so expect a frantic final few days on the ground. Here is what to watch out for.
Time to prioritise
Parties are deciding where to concentrate their energies. Fine Gael will prioritise the campaign in Galway where its candidate Seán Kyne is in the hunt for the seat. Party leader and Tánaiste Simon Harris plans to be there on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
It would be surprising if Sinn Féin did not make the opposite judgment: to concentrate its attention on Dublin Central where Janice Boylan led last week’s poll but will face a stiff challenge for the seat from the Social Democrats’ Daniel Ennis.
Getting out the vote
Turnout tends to be lower in byelections than at general elections, which only increases the importance of a party getting out its supporters to turn up on the day.
All parties will have a get-out-the-vote operation on polling day, but it is vital for Sinn Féin if it is to stand a chance of winning in Dublin West.
Beg, borrow, steal transfers
Nobody is getting elected on the first count: these elections will be decided by the transfers between candidates. These are unpredictable but will be influenced by factors such as geography, ideology, support/opposition to the Government, as well as candidates’ performance in the campaign.
Manage expectations
Though the byelections won’t change the balance of power in the Dáil, they have a political importance beyond that measurement partly because they dominate the political agenda for a few weeks.
Wins for the Social Democrats and/or Independent Ireland would confirm them as coming forces.
