Outgoing TDs: Simon Harris (FG), Stephen Donnelly (FF), Jennifer Whitmore (SD), John Brady (SF), Steven Matthews (GP)
Who are the candidates running in the Wicklow constituency:
- Joe Behan (IND)
- John Brady (SF)
- Rob Carry (IND)
- Shay Cullen (IND)
- Stephen Donnelly (FF)
- Philip Dwyer (IND)
- Simon Harris (FG)
- Ciarán Hogan (AON)
- Charlie Keddy (IND)
- Michaela Keddy (IP)
- Steven Matthews (GP)
- Kellie McConnell (PBPS)
- Paul O’Brien (LAB)
- Sean O’Leary (IND)
- Gerry O’Neill (IND)
- Dominic Plant (IND)
- Edward Timmins (FG)
- Jennifer Whitmore (SD)
- Source Wicklow returning officer
Without a doubt one of the bear pits of Election 2024, the loss of significant amounts of territory to the new Wexford-Wicklow constituency means five sitting TDs (including the Taoiseach and Minister for Health) will compete for four seats. Compounding matters, all of them pull from the same geographic area around Bray and Greystones.
Taoiseach Simon Harris will be safe in his home constituency, but his capacity to bring in his running mate Edward Timmons may be complicated by the emergence of former Fine Gael councillor Shay Cullen as an Independent candidate.
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There are enough Fianna Fáil votes in Wicklow to elect a TD, but the question is whether they will all turn out for Stephen Donnelly, a candidate seen by some as Fianna Fáil in name only, and following on from poor local election results. The slate has been cleared for Donnelly with Pat Casey falling by the wayside, and he may benefit from transfers from Harris if Coalition loyalty holds up – but they may go to Timmins and Cullen first, keeping Donnelly at arm’s length and leaving him in a scrap for the final seat with Cullen, Steven Matthews and former Fianna Fáil-cum-Independent TD Joe Behan.
Matthews may struggle if the tide is as far out for the Greens as is expected, while Brady will probably hold his seat but has lost thousands of his 2020 votes in the redraw. Jennifer Whitmore of the Social Democrats may benefit from Green transfers if she stays ahead of Matthews, and votes that may have otherwise gone to him but don’t favour voting for the Government. Her profile means centre-left ballots may gravitate towards her rather than Labour, while her vote has not been impacted by the redraw.
The hiving-off of a large chunk of southern Wicklow to create the new Wexford-Wicklow constituency has, as outlined above, fundamentally changed the race for four seats. The east of the constituency is home to large commuter-belt populations, and also saw disturbances over the location of housing for asylum seekers at Newtownmountkennedy. Mid-Wicklow and the west of the county are more rural.
Possible outcome: Fine Gael (1), Social Democrats (1), Sinn Féin (1), Fianna Fáil (1)
