As the man who drafted it has said, the EU's divorce clause was never meant to be triggered: article 50 was inserted into the Lisbon Treaty purely to silence British complaints that there was no official way out of the union.
What will happen now?
With the start date now known, albeit approximately, British efforts will redouble to open informal talks before official negotiations begin – despite Brussels’s repeated insistence on “no negotiation without notification”.
David Davis’s Brexit ministry, expected soon to total as many as 500 staff, and the government’s legal department will bear the brunt of extracting Britain from the bloc and defining its future relationship.
The key question they must resolve – and still a source of conflict within the government – remains whether the UK will push for enhanced access to the single market. Davis’s department, will model different “soft” and “hard” Brexit scenarios and their impact on dozens of sectors of the UK economy, help define the cabinet’s preferred Brexit target, and draw up negotiating priorities.
The long goodbye
As far as the exit process then goes, article 50 lays down the basic steps. The very first – a significant potential obstacle – states that the decision to leave has to have been taken in accordance with Britain’s “own constitutional requirements”.
That is one reason why nothing can happen before next year: several cases are currently before the courts arguing that the government does not have the power to invoke article 50 without parliament’s approval. The issue is likely to move swiftly to the supreme court, which will be under pressure to deliver a final judgment by Christmas.
What will the deal need to cover?
Charles Grant
of the Centre for European Reform likens it to a divorce settlement, “dividing up the properties, institutions and pension rights, and dealing with budget payments and . . . the rights of UK citizens in the EU and vice versa”.
The most sensible way to tackle the process, according to David Hannay, a former UK ambassador to the EU, would be for both parties to sit down and, in a largely technical first stage, agree on a list of everything that has to be covered.
Among the most complex issues Hannay identifies are the “acquired rights” of UK and EU citizens, and Britain’s international obligations under agreements it entered into as an EU member – such as the commitments made on its behalf at the Paris climate change conference.
There will also, he predicts, be “lengthy and contentious” arguments over Britain’s remaining budgetary and other financial liabilities – many complicated by the fact that EU programmes in fields such as scientific research and regional development often involve commitments beyond the exit date.
– Guardian service