IRAQ: In its latest report on Iraq, the International Crisis Group argues that the US is fighting an enemy it does not know and is losing the battle for hearts and minds.
In the 30-page document, based on interviews, analyses of internet sites, communications among insurgent organisations and leaflets, the ICG dismisses US claims that the insurgency is being conducted by followers of Saddam Hussein, Baathists and foreign fighters.
Instead, the ICG, an independent monitoring body, says 90 per cent of those taking part in the insurgency are Sunni Arab Iraqis motivated by both Islam and nationalism.
Of the 40-odd factions which emerged after the war in 2003, only 13, rated by their use of communications networks, seem to have survived. Those associated with the Baath party disappeared and the surviving groups have distanced themselves from the ousted regime.
The four main groups are the al-Qaeda Organisation in Mesopotamia, founded by Abu Musab Zarqawi; Partisans of the Sunnah, a Kurdish formation which mutated into an Iraqi Arab organisation; the Islamic Army of Iraq, a group with a core of former Iraqi army officers; and the Front of the Islamic Resistance, the most adept at communicating to Sunnis.
Each of those groups claims to have more than a dozen "brigades" of 100 to 300 fighters. The other nine have fewer brigades and "far less elaborate and stable channels of communication". The ICG estimates there are 5,000 to 15,000 fighters in all.
Al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia, which initially consisted of foreign militants, has transformed itself into a local movement by recruiting Iraqis and appointing an Iraqi operations chief and spokesman.
The insurgents seem to have learned from their mistakes, the report asserts, and are exploiting the US refusal to give a time-frame for withdrawal.
"The emergence of a more confident, better organised insurgency carries profound implications for policy-makers. That it has survived, even thrived, despite being vastly outnumbered and outgunned, suggests the limitations of the current counter-insurgency campaign."
The resistance is "increasingly optimistic about victory" because the insurgents believe their struggle has gained legitimacy while "institutions established under the occupation are fragile and irreparably illegitimate, and the war of attrition against US forces is succeeding".
