Relief and regret in Arab world

THE CEASEFIRE which brought an end to Israel's Grapes of Wrath offensive in southern Lebanon was received with relief and regret…

THE CEASEFIRE which brought an end to Israel's Grapes of Wrath offensive in southern Lebanon was received with relief and regret in an Arab world preparing for the joyful "Feast of Sacrifice" which concludes the Haj pilgrimage.

Relief was natural, because the ceasefire halted the Israeli onslaught on Lebanon. But regret accompanied it because this halt was not achieved two weeks ago, before Israel's campaign of air, land and sea bombardment killed 160 civilians, made 400,000 homeless, wreaked havoc in the south of Lebanon and disrupted the country's post war reconstruction programme.

There was relief also because the Hizbullah had been left "intact" and would, the Lebanese Prime Minister, Mr Rafiq al Hariri, pledged in his press conference, pursue its "liberation struggle" against Israel's zone of occupation until Lebanon regained sovereignty over its land.

Arab countries which have made peace with Israel - Egypt and Jordan - and the Palestinians were relieved because Operation Grapes of Wrath threatened to torpedo negotiations involving Israel, Syria and Lebanon which could achieve a comprehensive regional settlement.

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The rulers of Morocco, Tunisia, Oman and Qatar, countries which have established tentative diplomatic and economic relations with the Jewish state, also heaved a collective sigh of relief.

If Grapes of Wrath had continued, pro Western Arab regimes involved in dialogue with Israel would have had to reconsider their position.

They would have had to do so because Arab people everywhere, galvanised by radio and television coverage of this operation, are out raged over the one sided assault and infuriated by the West's refusal to curb Israel early in its campaign.

Highly politicised Arabs, who have followed events hour by hour and day by day, believe Israel has sustained defeat on the field of battle at the hands of Hizbullah's lightly armed guerrillas who did not flee and never stopped firing their Katyushas until the cut off fixed by the ceasefire agreement.

Furthermore, in spite of the best efforts of the US, to quote a columnist in a Gulf daily, "Israel did not gain at the negotiating table what it did not win on the battlefield".

The Arabs were delighted that Israel did not obtain an agreement which prohibited Hizbullah attacks on Israeli troops in the occupation zone or a pledge by Beirut and Damascus to curb Hizbullah's activities or a Lebanese promise to integrate members of Israel's surrogate South Lebanon Army into the Lebanese army as part of the price of Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon.

All these were demands which Israel had put forward early on in Grapes of Wrath but was forced to abandon.

The Arabs were greatly impressed at the way Syria assumed centre stage in the mediation effort, and carefully balanced the interests of all involved so that the ceasefire would preserve the status quo while giving the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Shimon Peres, something he could sell to his electorate as a political advance.

And while managing this difficult task, President Hafez al Assad of Syria became the most admired Arab leader as well as the man without whom there can be no Middle East peace.

As a result of this agreement, the Arabs expect Israel to make the necessary concessions to achieve a regional settlement based on the exchange of land for peace. Grapes of Wrath demonstrated, in the Arab view, that peace must be achieved by negotiation, not war, and that there can be no settlement until and unless Israel evacuates the Syrian Golan, southern Lebanon and the occupied Palestinian territories.

Reuter adds: Egypt yesterday welcomed the ceasefire, saying it hoped the agreement would restart regional peace talks.

"Egypt welcomes the ceasefire that has put a limit to the acts of violence against civilians ... and that would enable a return to the negotiating table on the Syrian and Lebanese peace tracks", the Foreign Minister, Mr Amr Moussa, said in a statement.

Michael Jansen

Michael Jansen

Michael Jansen contributes news from and analysis of the Middle East to The Irish Times