MIDDLE EAST: Over the past 10 days there has been a steady escalation in the conflict between Palestinians and Israelis. While the number of violent operations has increased significantly, the most important development is that the targeting of Israelis by the Palestinians has become noticeably more accurate.
This development is due to the pooling of men, resources and expertise by the Palestinian National Resistance Committees, which represent the 12 factions engaged in the uprising.
In addition, the continuous conflict is compelling poorly organised, underground guerrilla groupings to transform themselves into trained, quasi-military formations.
In the past week, the Palestinians have launched two standard military operations. The first, on February 14th, was a carefully co-ordinated attack on an Israeli convoy travelling in the Gaza Strip. This lured an Israeli Merkava-3 tank on to a roadbed where a 100kg bomb ripped through its soft underbelly and blew off its turret, killing four soldiers. This was the first time an Israeli tank was destroyed in such an operation.
The organisation claiming this operation was the Salahedin Brigade made up of elements of the Islamist Hamas and the secular Fatah movements.
On Tuesday night, a Palestinian squad killed six off-duty Israeli soldiers at a sniper-protected checkpoint at Ain Erik, west of the West Bank town of Ramallah. This was a textbook military operation involving tight security, surveillance, careful planning, precise timing and safe retreat. Fatah's military wing assumed responsiblity for the attack.
Some Israeli analysts have suggested that the Palestinians are receiving training from the Lebanese Hizbullah movement which drove the Israeli army from south Lebanon in May 2000.
But this is highly unlikely. Rather, it seems that the Palestinians are pursuing the same path Hizbullah followed. But Hizbullah, which was nothing more than a loose coalition of armed clans at the time of its founding in 1982, took 15 to 16 years to become an effective force.
The Palestinians seem to be developing more rapidly. During 2001, 208 Israelis were killed and 1,523 wounded in 1,794 reported attacks, an increase of 337 per cent over the toll for 2000. From December 16th, when the Palestinian President, Mr. Yasser Arafat, imposed a ceasefire, to January 14th, only one Israeli died.
On that date the Israeli army killed a Fatah militant, breaking the truce. Since then Israeli fatalities were at least 65.
The overall toll for the 16-month period surpasses the 156 killed in south Lebanon over 15 years.
Palestinian fatalities are put, variously, at 876 and 1034; 17,000 have been wounded.
