If Trimble can stir moderates, he has a chance

It's Formula 1 politics in Northern Ireland. Tons of political fuel will be burnt up between now and June 7th

It's Formula 1 politics in Northern Ireland. Tons of political fuel will be burnt up between now and June 7th. And expect a few burnt-out cases as well by polling day, such is the speed with which many of the candidates have accelerated into this campaign.

Take the Ulster Unionist Party and the DUP, for example. Each is bent on testing its political engines to the limit, engaging in full-throttle electioneering all the way, employing different ruses and manoeuvres to overtake the other.

On Saturday and Sunday Reg Empey and Ian Paisley locked wheels as they fought the pro and anti-Belfast Agreement battle. On Monday Dr Paisley was at the launch of his manifesto, again labelling Trimble a unionist traitor.

On Monday afternoon the UUP retaliated with its "Not the DUP Manifesto", which ridiculed the DUP as the party that "ran away" from serious politics.

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Yesterday Mr Trimble taunted that the DUP was in decline. The UUP leader should get a grip on reality, countered Peter Robinson. Today the DUP is publishing its version of what the UUP manifesto will contain.

There's an element of pantomime politics here certainly, but it's serious stuff. Dr Paisley and Mr Robinson have deserved reputations as election sluggers. Sometimes the UUP is viewed as too keen to follow Queensberry Rules, but not this time. This is mean street politics.

What's interesting is that, a little uncharacteristically, the UUP is eager and willing to engage at close quarters with The Doc and Mr Robinson, and right now the DUP appears a little surprised at how aggressively it is taking to the fight.

The question raised last week, when David Trimble issued his July 1st resignation threat together with his decommissioning ultimatum, was would this galvanise the pro- and anti-agreement elements within the UUP to rally together against the DUP, and other No unionists?

Or would it be purely counterproductive, ensuring that the IRA would give nothing on arms after the local and Westminster elections, while also failing to save Mr Trimble and the UUP's Yes wing?

The answer so far is that there is at least the appearance of unity within the UUP.

Anti-agreement Ulster Unionist Westminster candidates such as William Ross, Roy Beggs and David Burnside are operating on the principle that blood is thicker than water. Not much has been heard from Jeffrey Donaldson so far, but he would hardly win any friends by playing it ambivalently.

It may well be, as they say, all for the optics, and, accordingly, the DUP will do its utmost to expose contradictions and fractures between the Yes and No factions of Ulster Unionism.

But for the time being at least Mr Trimble has a reasonably tight grip on the party, and just watching the body language, and noting his delivery and tone, he is acting as a unionist leader with attitude.

How that translates on the stump is what is crucial. The most serious threat to the UUP is in Strangford, North Belfast and West Tyrone, where the odds are against the UUP holding these seats.

But Lady Hermon and David Burnside have a chance of taking the scalps of Robert McCartney and the DUP's William McCrea in North Down and South Antrim respectively.

The decision of anti-agreement unionist and Enniskillen bomb victim Jim Dixon to pull out of Fermanagh-South Tyrone, alleging dirty tricks against "fellow unionists", has left the DUP in a bit of a dither over whether to reinstate its Minister, Maurice Morrow, as a candidate.

If Mr Morrow stays out then the UUP candidate, James Cooper, would be favourite to hold Ken Maginnis's old seat. If Mr Morrow stays in then it will be a tough three-way battle between the UUP, the SDLP and Sinn Fein, and difficult to call.

Mr Trimble also faces problems in East Derry, South Belfast and his own constituency of Upper Bann.

Some nationalists in marginal seats may help Mr Trimble by voting tactically for Ulster Unionists. A pact with Alliance would increase his chances, but to date, as part of this gung-ho image, Mr Trimble isn't interested.

He's hanging tough, issuing ultimatums to the IRA, putting it up to the DUP, urging Catholics to support him in tight unionist constituencies, and effectively telling Alliance supporters to switch allegiance to the UUP for the sake of the agreement without offering anything in return. Whether it pays off will depend on how this macho posture goes down with ordinary unionist voters. As one pro-agreement but party political neutral put it, "What David Trimble needs to do is to prompt middle-class Prods to get out and vote for him."

Mr Trimble's firm stance appears to have stirred his party. If he can stir moderate unionism out of its traditional apathy, then he has a chance.

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty is the former Northern editor of The Irish Times