The ability to predict and manage extreme weather events such as destructive storms and widespread flooding caused by global warming is not what it should be, scientists at NUI Galway have said.
A symposium on how international collaboration can be improved, and Irish preparedness for the weather impacts of climate change can be enhanced, is taking place at the university on Wednesday.
There are still large uncertainties around climate projections, which make it very difficult as a society to prepare for extreme events, said Dr Audrey Morley of the NUIG department of geography. Research to reduce the uncertainties would result in better prediction, she said.
Leading scientists from disciplines such as oceanography, atmospheric sciences, climate modelling and flooding of coastal urban areas are attending. It will also include social scientists, as “the social impact on communities is often overlooked”, Dr Morley said.
Research over the past decade has shown countries such as Ireland and Britain that are located in the mid-latitudes – the temperate zones between the tropics and the Arctic and Antarctic polar regions – are vulnerable to extreme events due to global warming, and their frequency is likely to increase.
The Irish-UK climate is controlled by ocean-atmosphere climate dynamics that are most likely to change in the near future due to global warming, she added. “However our understanding of these events is limited especially when considering warmer than present environments in the future.”
She added: “As scientists, managers, and planners, we need to promote a cultural shift from disaster management based on response towards a strategic approach that emphasises a focus on prevention, adaptation and mitigation to build societal and economic resilience. This can only be done using evidence-based decision making.”
In addition, there was insufficient data from past environmental responses to natural hazards caused by climate change. “Without fully understanding the drivers of change in our environmental systems (coasts, marine, atmosphere, rivers, catchments, peatlands), any long-term management strategies may be ineffective,” she warned.
The need for a broad range of expertise to address the physical and social impacts of a changing climate on Ireland was underlined by Dr Eugene Farrell of NUIG. The symposium has also brought together post-graduate students "the next generation of climate scientists to exchange ideas and be exposed to state-of-the-art research", he said.
Coastal erosion
Dr Farrelly is leading a team researching the impact of storm events, notably coastal erosion. Their work has focused on the dune shoreline in the Maharees, Brandon Bay, Co Kerry that has been retreating rapidly over the past century. The low-lying sandy tombolo [narrow sand bar or spit] is highly-vulnerable every winter as the only road used for access is frequently closed due to flooding and sand deposited during storm events. The NUIG team has been monitoring the coastline in this area for the past two years and has been working with the local community to find solutions to protect this unique area.
“We are entering a tipping point in Earth history due to human activities that are increasing the risks of abrupt and irreversible changes to our environmental systems. To miss the opportunity of benchmarking how these systems are responding to current extreme events, such as the 2014 coastal storms and those that will occur over the next decade, is potentially very costly,” Dr Farrelly added.
