The North's First Minister, Mr David Trimble, is expected to come under severe pressure from his Ulster Unionist Party executive today after the Rev William McCrea of the DUP won the South Antrim Westminster seat from the UUP candidate, Mr David Burnside.
In an effort to sustain Mr Trimble's leadership, the Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, is now likely to try to put pressure on the Government in Dublin, the SDLP and Sinn Fein to accept some dilution of the Patten proposals on policing.
The UUP's Assembly members and MPs held their first post-mortem on the result yesterday, and the party's 110-member executive is meeting today in Belfast to consider the fallout from the loss of the seat.
Members of the anti-Belfast Agreement faction within the UUP, such as MPs Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, Mr William Ross, and the Rev Martin Smyth, were yesterday critical of the direction the party has taken under Mr Trimble, but no one has directly issued a leadership challenge.
Mr Trimble has a majority of about 60-40 per cent support on the executive, but nonetheless its anti-agreement members will try to make life difficult for him today.
Mr Donaldson yesterday called for the party to withdraw from the Executive but stopped short of challenging Mr Trimble for the leadership. Potential challengers such as the West Tyrone MP, Mr William Thompson, and the South Belfast MP, the Rev Martin Smyth, who in March failed to topple Mr Trimble, were highly critical of the UUP leader, but again are not so far prepared to challenge him.
Mr Trimble faces his Ulster Unionist Party conference on October 7th.
Any attempt to dislodge him would require 60 members of the party's ruling 860-member Ulster Unionist Council to table a motion to that effect.
Today, and in the coming days, anti-agreement Ulster Unionists will consider whether this is the time to launch another heave against Mr Trimble.
In May Mr Trimble with 53 per cent of the vote narrowly carried a motion at the Ulster Unionist Council to go back into government with Sinn Fein.
Any further loss of support would make his position very precarious.
However, Mr Trimble yesterday insisted he had no intention of resigning, effectively putting it up to the likes of Mr Donaldson to challenge him or accept his leadership.
He put down Mr McCrea's victory to a "protest vote against the [British] government's treatment of the RUC".
Mr Mandelson, in line with comments he made in Chicago this week, may now attempt to persuade the Irish Government and nationalists that Mr Trimble needs some form of concession on policing.
Both the SDLP and Sinn Fein have insisted that any tampering with Patten would result in nationalists refusing to join the new Police Service of Northern Ireland. Just a few hours after the South Antrim result was announced the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, warned that the Police Bill, as currently framed, fell short of nationalists' requirements "and will guarantee that policing remains a source of bitter controversy and division".
"Nationalists and republicans will not join, support or endorse what is currently proposed," Mr Adams said.
A British government source said the current difficulties on policing could be overcome "but only if politicians recognise where we are rather than pressing for a maximalist approach on one side, or a minimalist approach on the other".
