South Belfast
OUTGOING MEMBERS (six seats) (first preference votes, %)
*Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 5,389 (17.2%)
*Mark Robinson (DUP)3,991 (12.7%)
Alex Maskey (SF) 3,933 (12.6%)
*Carmel Hanna (SDLP) 3,910 (12.5%)
*Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 3,266 (10.4%)
*Esmond Birnie (UUP) 2,311 (7.4%)
* Denotes Assembly member also elected in first Assembly poll in 1998
Quota = 15%
UNIONIST BATTLEGROUND- South Belfast is natural UUP territory. But DUP has its eyes on two seats here for its two candidates, Jimmy Spratt and Christopher Stalford, which would make it a gain at the expense of UUP, which is running three candidates, Michael McGimpsey and Esmond Birnie, its two outgoing MLAs, and Robert Stoker. Three candidates is a big gamble as it is spreading the UUP vote very thin.
David Hoey running under Robert McCartney's UKUP banner could steal some DUP votes, but the advantage would seem with DUP.
NATIONALIST BATTLEGROUND- Would be a shock if either sitting MP Dr Alasdair McDonnell or Carmel Hanna failed to be elected for the SDLP but equally there is the Anna Lo factor that could complicate affairs.
Former Sinn Féin lord mayor of Belfast Alex Maskey should be able to consolidate SF's position in South Belfast, after taking the seat in 2003.
WILDCARD- What's intriguing here is how Anna Lo, head of the Chinese Welfare Organisation in Belfast, will perform. Alliance, which is under pressure in other constituencies, is making a determined effort to gain a seat, piling in the resources and the personnel.
If Ms Lo could gain a good first preference vote to put her up the table and in a position to win transfers, she would be in with a real chance at the last.
PREDICTION:DUP has a real chance of two seats to one for UUP. The other three seats are a trickier call because it's too early to state whether the centre-ground will deliver for Ms Lo.
That's a very live possibility although she may just fall short. So it could be two DUP, two SDLP, one UUP and one Sinn Féin.
