The Cabinet has been warned that unprecedented step changes will be needed in lifestyles, business models and emissions reductions before 2030 if new climate targets are to be met.
Ministers were given a briefing last week arising from a report by consultants McKinsey and Company that examined the socio-economic impact of the new carbon ceilings — a report Sinn Féin said it was waiting to see before committing to emissions targets.
The Government last week unveiled the emissions cuts that each sector would have to achieve to see an overall reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 51 per cent by 2030.
They include a 25 per cent cut for agriculture, a 75 per cent cut for electricity, a 50 per cent cut for transport, a 45 per cent cut for commercial and public buildings, a 40 per cent cut for residential buildings and a 35 per cent cut in industry.
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Ministers were briefed that delivering the plan to achieve the necessary reductions could cost €119 billion by 2030. This includes costs of €36 billion in the electricity sector, €42 billion in the transport sector and €31 billion in the building sector.
The report by McKinsey and Company was commissioned because of an “analytical gap” within Government that meant departments were not able to provide full assessments of the financial implications of the carbon ceilings because they do not have the modelling capacity.
Ministers were given a list of key messages on foot of the McKinsey analysis, and were firstly warned that delivering the Climate Act would “require a step-change in the pace of emissions reductions” and decarbonisation activities, such as a fivefold increase in installed solar capacity by 2030 compared with today.
Legally binding
According to a note given to Ministers, achieving the legally binding targets will involve a significant change in lifestyles of citizens and business models from now until 2030.
“It is clear that delivery will require very difficult policy trade-offs and intensive collaboration across departments within Government and with stakeholders across the economy. Departments will need to design very clear policies.”
“Achievement of the targets will require households to take investment decisions in favour of electric vehicles and building retrofits on a scale far beyond that currently observed in the economy.”
Ministers were also told that not all household groups will be in a position to make such investments and that detailed policies would be needed to address this.
“A myriad of individual decisions will be needed to drive the change,” the note said. “The scale of the challenge is unprecedented in terms of delivery, which will be acute between now and 2025.”
The Cabinet was also told there was potential for a net employment increase driven by building out renewables and heat pump activity in the buildings sector. Household spending could increase marginally driven by increased cost of utilities but this could be significantly offset by reduced private transportation costs, the memo says.
Details of the report have emerged as the focus on the climate plan switches from the individual percentage cuts needed in each sector to the actions that will be needed across society in the coming eight years.
Minister for Environment Eamon Ryan intends to complete a review within six months of what individual accountability plan will be needed for each department and minister in relation to the sectoral emissions ceilings.
