Government backing for a final bid by the Football Association of Ireland to co-host the Euro 2028 championship brings closer the prospect of one of the world’s biggest tournaments coming to Dublin. In a spirit of north-south and east-west cooperation, the FAI’s joint bid with four UK associations has now been submitted to Uefa. Ministers promise great opportunity to “showcase Ireland” to Europe and the world, in events shared with England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. However, they should proceed with care, mindful of financial concerns set out by Minister for Public Expenditure, Paschal Donohoe.
Nothing unites people like a momentous sporting occasion. So the potential for six Euro matches being played at Lansdowne Road in Dublin – three of them possibly involving the Irish team – is something to welcome. For the tens of thousands who love the sport, this is a hugely attractive proposition.
Still, vague political promises of huge spin-off gains for Irish football and the economy should be treated with caution. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar foresees long-lasting benefits for League of Ireland, local and youth football. Minister for Tourism and Sport, Catherine Martin, anticipates tremendous benefits for tourism and the hospitality sector and Minister of State for Sport, Thomas Byrne, said the tournament could champion social impact programmes. In the FAI’s account, Ireland stands to receive a potential economic boost of ¤241 million from ¤3 billion in cumulative benefits in all tournament locations.
Such assessments demand scrutiny, not least because of heavy FAI debts and the legacy of its governance troubles. True, the FAI figure is in line with Martin’s forecasts. She told the Cabinet gross added value to the economy would be about ¤189 million, with a total socioeconomic benefit of ¤241 million, when legacy benefits were included. But there were huge variations in potential costs. Although the basic estimate was ¤65 million, Ministers were told costs may rise above ¤90 million because of inflation and contingencies. Donohoe was “not absolutely persuaded” by the potential gains, although he did say subsequently that he supported the bid. He questioned the assumption of a zero displacement impact on tourism, saying it was “overly optimistic” to say visitors not travelling because of the football would come at another time. That seems a basic point.
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Cost-benefit analysis on big sporting events is rarely straightforward. The abortive 2022 bid to host the America’s Cup yacht race in Cork was costed at “just over” ¤600 million before this was halved to ¤200 million-¤300 million.
If Uefa opts for the Irish-UK bid, the Government should carry out – and publish – a more thorough-going cost appraisal before committing money.