The European Union's chief Brexit negotiator has said talks with the UK could fail over the question of the Irish Border.
Michel Barnier suggested a "single epidemiological zone" (disease control) on the island of Ireland for livestock and animal products.
Asked if the EU would reach agreement with the UK, Mr Barnier told France Inter radio, "I have no intimate conviction on this matter, because the political situation in the UK is extremely complex and I don't know what decisions [British prime minister] Theresa May will take."
Mr Barnier brought the text of a draft treaty containing 168 articles and three protocols on Cyprus, Gibraltar and Ireland to the radio studio. “We are 90 per cent in agreement with the British,” he said. The draft has taken his 60-strong team from 17 countries 1½ years to negotiate, he added.
“There is one extremely serious point remaining, which is a prerequisite, the demand that there not be a border in Ireland because it’s a condition for peace and stability after many tragedies,” he said.
Asked if the Irish question could scupper an accord, Mr Barnier replied, “The answer is yes. Everyone says so. I speak in the name of 27 heads of state and governments and the European Parliament … Theresa May has said herself that there must be a backstop.”
Single Sky
Mr Barnier defined the backstop as “a number of guarantees that there be no border. It means controls, but no border.”
“The fact that the UK is leaving the single market and customs union means the new external border of the market goes through the middle of the island. We cannot make a border. So we have to do controls.”
If there is no agreement, Mr Barnier said, “On the 30th of March [2019], the date chosen by the British, they will immediately leave the institutions, the internal market and the customs union. There is no transition. By leaving the EU, the British decided to automatically pull out of 750 international agreements, including, for example, the one called Single Sky.”
Under the Single European Sky initiative, the EU co-ordinates all take-offs and landings in the union. "If they leave, they leave the Single Sky," Mr Barnier said. "We will find contingency solutions, but it will be extremely serious."
In the absence of an accord, Mr Barnier said trade between the EU and UK would be subject to the rules of the World Trade Organisation. "So we would have to re-establish taxes and quotas on products coming from the UK to the single market. It would be very difficult for all of us in Europe; much worse for the British."
