In recent decades Israeli actions against Iran have focused on covert operations led by military intelligence, special forces and the Mossad.
In November last year, following the heavy setbacks for Hizbullah in Lebanon, when Donald Trump was elected US president indications were received that Iran was advancing towards a nuclear breakout. Israel decided covert operations were no longer enough.
Air force and intelligence officers conducted in-depth discussions on the conditions required for a war to remove Iran’s nuclear threat. The war aims were set as striking Iran’s missiles, air defences, nuclear programme, command and control centres, economic targets, key regime leaders and military industries.
Israel decided the attack on Iran would take place in 2025 and concluded that achieving Israeli air superiority was the key to a successful outcome. A dedicated team of about 120 experts from the elite intelligence unit 8200, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), intelligence directorate and the air force was established to map Iran’s air defence systems.
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A comprehensive bank of targets was established, based on years of intelligence and the long reach of the air force, including command centres, nuclear scientists, nuclear facilities and missile launchers that posed immediate threats to Israeli civilians.
In the interim period, massive airlifts of ordnance from the US to Israel, including items frozen during Joe Biden’s administration, ensured Israel would have the weapons to do the job.
The meticulous intelligence planning paid off, and air superiority was accomplished in the first 24 hours of the war, with the destruction of more than 40 Iranian air defence systems – a number that has since risen to more than 70. These strikes enabled Israeli jets to operate freely and opened the flight paths to Tehran and further afield.
The distance between Tel Aviv and Tehran is almost 2,000km. This is Israel’s first long-distance war. Recent attacks against Houthi targets in Yemen were seen as a practice run.
Some 600 intelligence officers continue working around the clock at the IDF’s targeting centre. Commanders report that the extent of damage achieved so far against Iranian scientists and military commanders is about three times initial estimates.
This is a complex mission that cannot be sustained indefinitely given the burden on pilots, aircraft, technical units and the command centres. Israel’s primary challenge is to maximise military achievements without being dragged into a protracted war of attrition that would exact a high toll, both on the home front and on the battlefield.
If the US joins the war, the fighting could conclude far quicker – especially regarding the uranium enrichment facility in Fordow and other fortified targets that have not yet been dealt with.
