Irish troops in southern Lebanon are well used to violence from both Hizbullah and the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF).
In recent months the windows of Camp Shamrock, the main Irish outpost, have regularly shook from the force of nearby explosions. Soldiers have observed Hizbullah forces firing missiles from the vicinity of the camp and have been forced to take cover in bunkers many times before the inevitable Israeli counterstrike lands.
In 2022 Pte Sean Rooney was killed in an attack by suspected Hizbullah members and last month an Irish vehicle was damaged in an Israel drone strike during a routine patrol.
In the aftermath of devastating Israeli strikes on south Lebanon on Monday, which left almost 300 people dead, fears are mounting that the IDF is about to launch a full-scale invasion of the beleaguered country. This would present an entirely different set of challenges and dangers for the 340 Irish troops stationed there.
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Experts believe if an Israeli invasion takes place it will likely be confined to the south of the country. Camp Shamrock is less than 30 minutes’ drive from the southern border, meaning Irish troops would find themselves at the heart of the fighting. They would be in considerable danger from artillery and rocket attacks by both sides. Hizbullah has a record of firing rockets from near Unifil positions in the hope of discouraging Israel from responding with artillery or drones.
Unifil’s primary goal is to prevent the outbreak of hostilities. But once fighting breaks out there is little more it can do. While its mandate also includes the protection of citizens in the face of an overwhelming military assault by the IDF, Unifil troops would likely have to suspend all activity and simply lie low.
This is essentially what happened during previous Israeli incursions in 1982, 1986 and during the IDF’s so-called Grapes of Wrath operation in 1996. During those invasions Irish troops could do little more than count the Israeli tanks as they drove by.
The UN could take the decision to alter Unifil’s mandate to give it more powers. Or it could just decide to withdraw UN forces entirely.
Much will depend on the attitude of the countries that contribute troops. During previous violence some Unifil contributors have been reluctant to place their troops in harm’s way. Ireland is not one of these. Tánaiste Micheál Martin said on Monday there are no plans at present to withdraw Irish troops. But if other countries decide to withdraw Ireland may be forced to follow suit on the basis of pure pragmatism.
Monday’s bombardment marked the bloodiest day in Lebanon since the end of its civil war in 1990. Hizbullah has already responded with mass rocket attacks into northern Israel. What happens next will be watched nervously in Ireland and around the world. “We say to the warring parties to desist, to de-escalate, to bring the conflict to an end,” Mr Martin said on Monday from the UN in New York.
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