Israel claims that Tuesday morning’s intensive air strikes on Gaza came after Hamas refused to release more hostages and rejected ceasefire proposals from the US and Arab mediators.
But its statement conveniently forgot to mention was that it was Israel that caused the Gaza ceasefire to collapse, failing to withdraw its troops from the route known as the Philadelphi corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border and also failing to engage in talks on the second phase of the truce agreed in January, aimed at bringing about a permanent end to the war.
In response to Israel’s stance, US envoy Steve Witkoff came up with a new proposal but Hamas insisted on sticking to the terms of the original deal and refused to release more of the hostages seized in its attack on Israel on October 7th, 2023.
The old maxim that it is easy to know how a war starts but not how it ends holds true for the latest Israeli operation. Presumably, if Hamas continues to refuse to release more hostages, the Israel Defense Forces will escalate, launching a wide scale ground manoeuvre.
However, the IDF combat divisions are exhausted, having spent much of the last 18 months fighting, either in Gaza or in south Lebanon. Reserve units are already reporting a growing number of soldiers refusing new call-ups, already having endured months away from their families and workplaces.
There is another big difference from October 7th, when there was across the board support for a war against Hamas. A majority of Israelis now prioritise the release of the hostages over the defeat of Hamas and, after some 40 hostages were killed in Hamas captivity, it is difficult to argue that the best way to bring them home is to resume hostilities.
A return to war is a nightmare scenario for the hostages' families, who want a deal to return all the hostages and an end to the war.
For prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu the resumption of Israel’s onslaught on Gaza brings immediate political benefits. First of all it deflects public attention from his controversial decision this week to fire Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s security agency Shin Bet, which gave a boost to the anti-Netanyahu protest movement.
It will also boost his coalition, which needs to pass a budget by the end of this month to prevent new elections. The far-right Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Strength) quit the coalition in January in protest against the ceasefire. The party is now rejoining the coalition in response to the resumption of fighting, providing a political lifeline for Netanyahu.
The opposition says Netanyahu is once again putting his political survival ahead of the interests of the country, and in doing so is endangering not only the lives of the hostages but also the soldiers who will be called up to fight.
