United States envoy Amos Hochstein arrived in Lebanon on Monday to participate in a meeting of the committee overseeing the implementation of the Lebanon ceasefire, amid signs that Israel will not withdraw its forces from its neighbour within the stipulated 60 days.
Under the terms of the ceasefire agreed in November, all Israeli troops are supposed to pull back from south Lebanon by January 26th. Israel claims it cannot yet withdraw because the Lebanese Armed Forces have not deployed along the border at the required pace.
Israeli defence minister Yisrael Katz visited the military’s northern command over the weekend and issued a subsequent warning to Lebanon.
“The fundamental condition for implementing the agreement is the full withdrawal of Hizbullah north of the Litani river, disarming from all its weapons and the removal of the terrorist infrastructure by the Lebanese army. This has still not happened,” he said, adding that if Hizbullah did not withdraw, “there will not be an agreement”.
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The Iran-backed group said it would view Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops as an occupying force after the 60-day deadline and act accordingly.
“We are restraining ourselves, but that does not mean we will restrain ourselves for 60 days. It’s possible our patience will run out before the end of the 60 days,” said Hizbullah secretary general Naim Qassem at the weekend.
Will the ceasefire in Lebanon hold?
Lebanese officials say their army is incapable of operating in areas where the IDF is located. Last week Beirut submitted a list of 800 alleged violations of the ceasefire agreement, including Israeli attacks on sites in southern Lebanon and the ongoing Israeli presence in more than 60 villages and towns, preventing the return of more than 160,000 displaced people to their homes.
Israel claims that during the first 30 days of the ceasefire, it killed 44 Hizbullah operatives who violated the agreement, carrying out more than 25 attacks in Lebanon in response to alleged Hizbullah violations.
Israel has little faith that the small and poorly-equipped Lebanese Armed Forces will stand up to Hizbullah violations or that the United Nations Unifil peacekeeping force will enter Shia villages and confiscate weapons.
Despite the threats and counter-threats, an Israeli official said he did not expect the ceasefire to collapse, even if the IDF was to remain in Lebanese territory following January 26th.
Parallel to the events in the south, Hizbullah is now engaged in an ongoing struggle to maintain its position as the pre-eminent political force in Lebanon following its recent military setbacks. On Thursday, Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri will convene the chamber in an attempt to choose a new president for the first time since October 2022 — the first key test for Lebanon’s reconstruction.
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