Backchannel talks involving the US, France and Iran appear to have postponed or obviated an imminent Iranian and Hizbullah retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hizbullah strategist Fuad Shukr.
The aim of the diplomatic effort is to “end the latest wave of tensions and return the status quo” to the situation before last month’s assassinations in Tehran and Beirut, and grant “international diplomacy a chance to end the war in Gaza”, Lebanese sources told the Saudi-owned, London-based Al-Sharq al-Awsat pan-Arab daily.
A proposal for the renunciation of retaliation in exchange for an end to the Gaza war was put forward last Wednesday during an emergency meeting called by Iran and Palestine of foreign ministers of the 57-member Organisation of Islamic Co-operation.
The ministers condemned Israel’s killing of Haniyeh but did not back retaliation. Pakistani foreign minister Ishaq Dar called for sticking to the diplomatic route.
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“We must not fulfil [Israeli prime minister Binyamin] Netanyahu’s plan for a wider war,” he said.
Jordan’s foreign minister Ayman Safadi referenced the trade-off during an interview with US satellite channel CNN.
Following the meeting, Iran’s United Nations mission stated: “We have pursued two priorities simultaneously: first, establishing a durable ceasefire in Gaza and the withdrawal of the [Israeli military] occupiers from this territory; second, punishing the aggressor for the assassination of martyr Haniyeh.”
“We have the legitimate right to self-defence – a matter totally unrelated to the Gaza ceasefire. However, we hope that our response will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire.”
Commenting on this statement, the US news site Politico reported: “Tehran seems to have recalibrated and the US does not expect an attack on Israel imminently”.
On Friday, US president Joe Biden, Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah al-Sidi, and Qatar’s ruler Sheikh Tamim ibn Hamad al-Thani issued a joint call for resumption of ceasefire negotiations on Thursday.
“There is no further time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay. It is time to release the hostages [seized in the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7th], begin the ceasefire and implement this agreement,” they stated.
Hamas has said it would accept a ceasefire deal based on a framework proposed by Biden on May 31st, while Netanyahu has said he would send his team to Cairo.
This trade-off suits Tehran and Hizbullah. Punitive strikes on Israel would risk massive Israeli retaliation against Iran and Lebanon, both of which are struggling to deal with political discontent and economic meltdown.
France regards itself as Lebanon’s protector while the US seeks to avoid a region-wide war with Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
An unidentified senior US official told Washington-based Al Monitor website, the deal “could give all sides a chance to stand down and stop the deterioration towards all-out war”.
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