Middle EastAnalysis

Assassinations by Israel of Hamas and Hizbullah leaders leaves Middle East shocked and unsettled

Hamas, Hizbullah and Iran have vowed revenge, although a miscalculation could consign the region to all-out war

The killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas political leader, has given rise to fears of a broad regional conflict. Photograph: Rehan Khan/EPA
The killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas political leader, has given rise to fears of a broad regional conflict. Photograph: Rehan Khan/EPA
Michael Jansen's picture
Michael Jansen
Wed Jul 31 2024 - 17:14

The Middle East has been deeply shocked and unsettled by Israel’s co-ordinated assassinations of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday and Hizbullah military strategist Fuad Shukr in Beirut on Tuesday.

Haniyeh’s killing has, in particular, given rise to fears of a broad regional conflict. He represented Hamas in Qatari-mediated talks on a ceasefire in the Gaza war, and Hizbullah had pledged that it would end its attacks from Lebanon into northern Israel in the event of a Gaza ceasefire.

An exasperated Qatari prime minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani posted on X: “How can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?”

Haniyeh was a pragmatic politician and diplomat while Shukr was committed to armed struggle against Israel. Both in their early 60s, they belonged to the founding generations of Hamas and Hizbullah respectively and achieved prominence after Israel eliminated their predecessors. Haniyeh rose through the ranks after Hamas’ co-founders Shaikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi were assassinated by Israel in 2004. Shukr replaced Hizbullah military chiefs eliminated by Israel: Imad Mughniyeh in 2008 and Mustafa Badruddin in 2016.

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Born into a Palestinian refugee family in the Shati United Nations camp in Gaza City, Haniyeh earned a BA in Arabic literature from Gaza’s Islamic University and became involved with Hamas during the first intifada (1987-93).

Haniyeh served as the university’s dean before being appointed to head a Hamas office in 1997. He topped the Hamas list which won the 2006 Palestinian legislative election and served as Palestinian prime minister from March 2006 until June 2007, when Hamas seized control of Gaza in response to a coup mounted by its rival Fatah.

Regarded as a moderate who tried to achieve reconciliation with Fatah, Haniyeh led Hamas until 2017 when he was succeeded in Gaza by hardliner Yahya Sinwar, who had served 22 years in Israeli prisons.

Haniyeh became head of Hamas’s political arm based in Qatar and Turkey. Israel claimed Haniyeh joined Sinwar in planning the October 7th attack on Israel which triggered the Gaza war.

Haniyeh’s deputy, Saleh al-Aruri, was killed by Israel in Beirut in January. Khaled Meshaal, his immediate predecessor, may take over Haniyeh’s post and continue ceasefire negotiations. Israeli agents tried and failed to poison Mashaal in Jordan in 1997.

Buildings that were damaged in an Israeli strike on Beirut, Lebanon. Photograph: Wael Hamzeh/EPA-EFE
Buildings that were damaged in an Israeli strike on Beirut, Lebanon. Photograph: Wael Hamzeh/EPA-EFE

Born in Lebanon’s eastern Baalbek district, which is largely Shia, Shukr studied military science at Imam Hossein University in Tehran and played an active role in the establishment and rise of Hizbullah. Since Iran’s Revolutionary Guards trained Lebanese Shia fighters to resist Israel’s 1982 invasion and occupation of Lebanon, he has been a combatant, a military planner, and a commander, prompting the US to offer $5 million for information leading to his capture.

In 1983, Shukr participated bombings which killed 241 US and 58 French military personnel in the multinational peacekeeping force established to stabilise Beirut after Israel’s withdrawal from central Lebanon.

He had a role in the 1985 formation of Hizbullah to fight Israel’s occupation of south Lebanon, which Hizbullah ended in 2000.

In 2006, Hizbullah fought Israel’s invading army to a standstill. Since 2011 the militant group has built a formidable arsenal and its fighters have gained battle experience by supporting the Syrian army during that country’s civil war.

Over the past 10 months, Hizbullah has mounted cross-border exchanges of fire with the Israeli army to create a second front in Israel’s Gaza war.

Shukr is the most senior commander of the 400 Hizbullah officers and fighters killed during this period. Israel claimed he ordered the rocket strike that killed a dozen young footballers in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Druze Golan town of Majdal Shams on Saturday.

Hamas, Hizbullah, and their ally Iran have vowed revenge, although a miscalculation could consign the region to all-out war.