Ireland-Australia matches don't tend to do dull, and with a favourable forecast this should be no different. Like all previous match-ups, this will be decided by the players but it is, of course, to the curious backdrop of the last two Leinster coaches going head-to-head, which confirms the province must be doing something right. Yet come kick-off, there is relevance in this too.
While it’s great to see Michael Cheika’s career blossom after the honesty of his coaching ethos left such a rich legacy in Leinster, and especially to see him assume the throne as the Wallabies’ head coach after guiding the Waratahs to their first Super Rugby title, it was still sad to see Ewen McKenzie’s reign end as it did.
Cheika’s time would have come anyway, while in his all too brief tenure, McKenzie had revitalised Australia from their low post-Lions ebb, and for a while arguably had them playing the most daring brand of rugby in the world around the extravagant gifts of Quade Cooper.
Game-breakers
Admittedly, he was sticking with the more reliable game management of
Bernard Foley
outside of his Waratahs’ teammate
Nick Phipps
when Will Genia and Cooper only recently returned from lengthy lay-offs. Cheika still has the game-breaking Reds pair on the bench today, as well as enfant terrible Kurtley Beale, not to mention the ballast of the gargantuan Will Skelton. It’s doubtful any bench this weekend has as much game-breaking ability.
That said, the Wallabies have long looked in need of a much more professional culture and no better man than Cheika. Thus, whereas the Springboks were thrice spotted enjoying a few end-of-season tour drinks in Gleesons of Booterstown after training in nearby Blackrock, under Cheika’s watch these Wallabies – unlike the late night revellers of a year ago – have worn their game faces all week.
Nor, with Foley pulling the strings and the brilliantly athletic Israel Folau, the richly in-form Tevita Kuridrani and the debutant Henry Speight, are Australia lacking in cutting edge. If the Wallabies enjoy the same set-piece and possession supremacy the Springboks had, they are likelier to make it tell.
Under Cheika, Australia have retained their ability to play on the gain line and, with their work-rate off the ball, provide scrumhalf and first receiver with more options, all the more so now that Matt Toomua has been recalled as a second playmaker.
“They are always able to exploit space,” said Paul O’Connell yesterday. “If you show them space they will go to it rather than run over you and I think that is a big thing with them.
"When you look at the size profile of their squad, they are probably capable of running over you as well at the moment. But they can match a real cleverness with that and so many of the plays that we would have used in Munster, Ireland or the provinces down through the years would have been poached off Australian teams."
However this has become more of an Irish trait under Schmidt, along with a much reduced error count. Ireland also have more trust in each other and in Les Kiss's defensive system. Cheika and his defensive coach Nathan Grey are still developing the blitz defensive they favoured at the Waratahs and which, like many Australian defensive systems, takes their playmaker, Foley, out of the line of fire. But as demonstrated in Paris last week, it is all or nothing, with Kuridrani shooting up and Adam Ashley-Cooper often having to gamble on an outside-in rush. There will be space in behind for Schmidt and Johnny Sexton to exploit.
Against that, there is Cheika’s insider knowledge and the memory of how his Waratahs’ team targeted Sexton with some late hits on the Lions tour, prompting Sexton’s withdrawal after 53 minutes in Sydney.
Eye-opener
Both last November and the Six Nations have demonstrated that Ireland have tended to improve under Schmidt’s watch, and last year’s 32-15 beating by Australia was an eye-opener, one suspects, for players and Schmidt alike.
“Even though that Australia game was a big disappointment it did teach us a lot,” admitted O’Connell yesterday. “There are so many technical things you have to get right in rugby but if you’re thinking about technical things when you go out on the pitch on Saturday in rugby it’s very hard to play with intensity. It’s very hard to play with the right physicality levels and, for me anyway, that’s what that week against Australia gave us.”
It would not be a shock if Australia won this game. They did, after all, win 32-15 here a year ago and Ireland have only won two of the last 10 meetings. While Australia lost heavily enough away to New Zealand and South Africa, all their other games were one-score affairs, and in two home games they did draw with the All Blacks as well as coming within a play of beating them.
What would be more surprising is if, a la last year’s corresponding fixture or a fortnight ago, either side pulled well clear on the scoreboard. More likely this will be close, albeit with openings and tries, and plenty of ebbs and flows.
The Wallabies have more game-breakers, yet Ireland have the supreme leader in O’Connell, home advantage, the Murray-Sexton axis, the Schmidt factor and, notably in defence, more assuredness in what they’re doing just now.
Irish fitness levels have also shown up well this season and while they may need to starve Australia of more ball than they did South Africa, ultimately Ireland are further down the Schmidt path than Australia are down Cheika’s.
