Andy Farrell will unveil his trickiest and most interesting selection of this year's Guinness Six Nations early this afternoon for Sunday's game against Italy at the Aviva Stadium (kick-off 3pm), given his delicate balancing act this week included weighing up the cases for recalling Johnny Sexton, Robbie Henshaw and James Lowe, while almost certainly affording Dan Sheehan his first Test start at hooker and shaking up the match-day 23 in other areas.
Affording Joey Carbery back-to-back starts would be the most delicate call of all but it is something that the Irish coaches have apparently been considering.
Sexton has been training fully for the past week after missing the defeat by France in Paris with a hamstring twinge, while Lowe marked his 27-minute cameo for Leinster last week with a long-range try after missing both of Ireland’s opening two games with a hamstring injury.
Henshaw played the last 16 minutes in Paris after being restricted to just four games in an injury afflicted season and is in need of game time, as are Sexton and Lowe, as otherwise they could be rusty for the penultimate Six Nations game against England at Twickenham.
However, as against that, there is a strong case for retaining Joey Carbery and allowing him to build on his increasingly assured 80-minute display in the Stade de France in what was a belated first Six Nations start for the 26-year-old.
This would also constitute a statement of faith in Carbery and send a message to prospective opponents that one of the keys to beating Ireland might not be removing Sexton from the occasion after all.
Farrell and company will also bear in mind the need to strengthen the depth chart at outhalf by adding to the investment in Carbery, although it might surprise people to note that of the two Carbery has had the greater amount of game time lately.
Since last summer Carbery has played seven Tests, starting against Japan and the USA last summer, as well as Argentina in the autumn and France a fortnight ago, as well as decent stints off the bench against Japan and the All Blacks last November, and Wales in the Six Nations opener.
In all Carbery has had 344 minutes on the pitch since last summer for Ireland. By comparison, Sexton has had three starts, against Japan, New Zealand and Wales, totalling 188 minutes.
There’s also little doubt that while there is still a title to chase, given Italy have lost their last 34 Six Nations games, there is also more wriggle room to take a risk or two than is the case in any of the other four matches.
Options at outhalf
At scrum-half, the presence of Craig Casey on media duties this week would appear to indicate that the 22-year-old scrum-half – who made his debut in the corresponding round three game a year ago – will be included in the match-day squad. Presumably, this would most likely be as back-up to Jamison Gibson-Park.
The likes of James Hume, Robert Baloucoune and Michael Lowry are all knocking on the door but their next opportunities may have to wait until the three-test summer tour to New Zealand, and those mooted additional two games against the New Zealand Maori. By contrast, Bundee Aki and Mack Hansen have done little wrong while Lowe and Henshaw are proven at this level.
However, if there’s an argument for increasing the options at outhalf, there’s an even stronger case for doing so at full-back, the position where Hugo Keenan has played all but two of 18 Tests in a row. Hansen will likely be tried out there one day.
The high probability of Sheehan being given his first Test start after his strong outing in Paris as a 25th minute replacement for the stricken Ronan Kelleher, possibly intensifies the need to keep Andrew Porter and Tadhg Furlong trucking along. All the signs are that David Kilcoyne and Rob Herring will return to the bench.
Iain Henderson might well have been earmarked for a return to the second-row until testing positive for Covid-19, in which case Tadhg Beirne looks like partnering James Ryan again. Depending on how he recovered from his head injury in Paris, Peter O’Mahony might return to the back-row, with Caelan Doris reverting to 8, while Josh van der Flier looks a shoo-in.
Ireland (possible v Italy): Keenan; Hansen, Ringrose, Henshaw, Lowe; Carbery, Gibson-Park; Porter, Sheehan, Furlong, Ryan (capt), Beirne, O'Mahony, van der Flier. Doris. Replacements: Herring, Kilcoyne, Bealham, Baird, Conan, Casey, Sexton, Hume.
