If the reaction to his media appearances is anything to go by, Irish rugby cares greatly for the opinion of Ronan O’Gara.
Following La Rochelle’s defeat Leinster last month, he spoke on the prospect of a knockout rematch. While O’Gara backed his charges to come good, the former Ireland outhalf also warned of one impending improvement to Leo Cullen’s group.
“They’ve Dan Sheehan to come back, who I think is one of the world’s best players,” he said. “Speed kills and he kills teams on his own.”
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Sheehan missed that clash as he recovered from an ACL injury. Now, three games into his comeback, he captains Ireland during this weekend’s Six Nations trip to Cardiff.
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Is O’Gara’s right? After ascending to the national captaincy, does Sheehan also rank among the world’s best? Dupont, du Toit, Snyman, Savea and Doris (and others) may well have something to say on this topic.
Among hookers, though, it is easier to make Sheehan’s case.
The obvious place to start is his try-scoring. Should Sheehan cross the line on Saturday, he will become the most prolific forward in the history of the Six Nations (since Italy’s inclusion in 2000).
He currently sits on nine tries in this competition, level with Imanol Harinordoquy, Jamie Heaslip and Charles Ollivon. Those men have 39, 45 and 21 Six Nations caps respectively. Saturday will be Sheehan’s 17th championship game.
Caveats apply here. Four of those nine tries have come from sitting behind a dominant Irish maul. Two were simple finishes out wide created by skilful offloads from team-mates. Another came via a botched Scotland lineout last year, a gift for any player.
Only two tries came from Sheehan’s raw ability; a clever inside ball allowing him to speed through a gap against England in 2023, plus his beautiful handling and strong finish against the same opposition a few weeks ago.
Clearly, we can poke holes in the ploy of using his try-scoring to point to Sheehan’s world-beating status. More detailed numbers are required.
Thanks to his afformentioned ACL injury, the last time we saw Sheehan given an extended run in green was the 2024 Six Nations. During that competition, 11 hookers made 10 or more carries. Sheehan (25 per cent) ranked joint third for his dominant carry rate. Only Italy’s Giacomo Nicotera (27.3 per cent) and France’s Peato Mauvaka (31.6 per cent) were better.
Sheehan outworked both of his rivals, making 36 carries into contact compared to Mauvaka’s 19 and Nicotera’s 11; only Elliot Dee of Wales had more with 41. In the same stretch of matches, the Irish hooker comfortably beat all comers with 10-plus carries when it game to breaking the gainline (64.3 per cent) and was second (behind Rónan Kelleher) for evading tackles (20.5 per cent).
Mindful of the scorn of southern hemisphere fans, it’s important to note that Sheehan is currently ranking highly solely among European competition. Most of his rivals for world’s best hooker come from below the equator.
Somewhat frustratingly, there is no publicly available data comparable to the above numbers for either the Autumn Nations Series or Rugby Championship. Even if there was, these figures would not include a direct comparison to Sheehan, who missed the previous six months through injury.
Somewhat relevant to this pursuit are stats from the 2023 World Cup. These are available and, crucially, include form comparisons between Sheehan and his positional rivals.
Of hookers who played in the knockouts back in 2023, Sheehan (35.7 per cent) ranked sixth for dominant carry rate. Argentina’s Agustin Creevy (42.9 per cent), New Zealand’s Cody Taylor (43.3 per cent), Fiji’s Tevita Ikanivere (44 per cent), France’s Peato Mauvaka (61.5 per cent) and England’s Theo Dan (66.7 per cent) all had better numbers.
Given their countries’ easier draws, you would be tempted to discount Creevy and Dan. The latter, though, does look to be a proper prospect for England.
Once again, Sheehan makes up ground in collision dominance by ranking second for gainline carries (73.3 per cent) behind only Mauvaka (75.8 per cent). His evasion rate of 15.4 per cent was fifth behind Ikanivere, Samisoni Taukei’aho, Creevy (if we buy his statistical relevance) and Mauvaka.
Not mentioned yet are the South African hookers. Sheehan bettered both Bongi Mbonambi and Deon Fourie at dominating attacking collisions, breaking the gain line and evading tackles. Malcolm Marrx, one of the biggest contenders for world’s best hooker, missed the World Cup through injury.
As always, there is a caveat which warns against taking statistics at their word. That Sheehan breaks the gainline better than most should come as no surprise given his frequent positioning on the wing. Defences are poorly staffed out wide in comparison to the mass of bodies closer to the ruck. It’s easier to make ground when running at one defender, as opposed to multiple.
During last year’s Six Nations, Sheehan (54.8 per cent) had the second fewest amount of carries into two or more defenders among all hookers. The man with the fewest? Mauvaka (52.6 per cent). It is no coincidence that the two hookers who frequently pop up on the wing face the fewest two-man tackles. They therefore have the best gainline success and tackle evasion rates.
Using that fact to discount Sheehan’s effectiveness, though, would do him a disservice. We are left with a chicken and egg scenario. Yes, Sheehan beats plenty of defenders because carrying out wide is easier. Yet he is on the touchline in the first place because of an attribute which deserves recognition; the speed which frightens O’Gara. If Sheehan didn’t have this athletic profile, he wouldn’t have been in wide positions for some of his more simple tries in recent years.
It is also important to note Sheehan’s all-round skills. A recent try against England started with his own deft pass to Jack Conan which opened up the English defence. He then threw a 19.1 metre pass to James Lowe before taking an offload to score. How many hookers are throwing such wide balls?
Even at the lineout – what was once a hooker’s most important job – there’s an argument for Sheehan’s merit. In the 2024 Six Nations, with Sheehan starting five matches, Ireland had the joint best lineout success rate. In the 2023 edition, Ireland won 94 per cent lineouts on Sheehan’s throw. The World Cup was a set-piece blip, but there are nuances there, including rotating personnel in the hooker shirt.
Using both statistics and the eye test, it’s difficult to argue with O’Gara. We don’t have a reading for Sheehan’s speed, but there are clear examples of it “killing teams”. Combined with carrying numbers, either at or near the top of the game, along with a solid enough set piece record and excellent handling game, there are few hookers who can match Sheehan’s all-round ability.
His try-scoring is the cherry on top. The best players aren’t always the ones to cross the whitewash but in Sheehan’s case, the reverse is true. His total skill set ensures he deserves the title of becoming the Six Nation’s most prolific forward.
Sheehan should get the one try required to stand on his own sooner rather than later. When leading Ireland out in Cardiff, earning this record would only add to the significance of Saturday’s occasion.
