Wales v Ireland
Venue: Principality Stadium, Cardiff
Kick-off: 2.15, Saturday.
On TV: Live on Virgin Media 1 and BBC 1.
Well then, this looks a good deal more interesting than appeared to be the case a fortnight ago.
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Wales have parted company with Warren Gatland and hired a quick fix in interim head coach Matt Sherratt, who has certainly shaken things up and stirred home spirits. But in returning ‘home’, his counterpart Simon Easterby has not played his hand cautiously either.
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Sherratt has made eight changes in personnel and two positional, affording a debut to a 21-year-old winger Ellis Mee, with the three-quarter line and fullback boasting all of 26 caps between them.
Easterby has made seven changes in personnel and one positional, including a Six Nations debut for 23-year-old Jamie Osborne at fullback, a first Test start for tighthead Thomas Clarkson, as well as an international debut and two more Championship debuts on the bench in Jack Boyle, Gus McCarthy and Cian Prendergast. And lest we forget, although it’s easy to do so, Sam Prendergast is still only 21.
So, while it remains a relatively callow Welsh starting XV of 439 caps, this run-on Irish team (567 caps) is nothing like the one of two weeks ago, which was the most experienced of any Irish side. Granted, Ireland’s match-day ‘23’ has a combined 891 caps, as against their counterparts’ 563.
But perhaps most significantly of all, Sherratt has restored Gareth Anscombe as an authentic and experienced outhalf alongside his Gloucester halfback partner Tomos Williams. Hence, Ben Thomas reverts to his customary position of centre alongside another Gloucester man in the recalled Max Llewellyn, so renewing a midfield partnership from their amateur days.
Settled combinations abound, with Tommy ‘Turnover’ Reffell recalled alongside captain and fellow loosie Jac Morgan, who shifts to blindside, either side of the vastly experienced Taulupe Faletau.
Clearly, Wales will seek to target Ireland’s breakdown as England did, with Sherratt mindful of the regions suffering defeat by “slow poison” against possession-based Irish teams. Sherratt has also placed a big focus on discipline to restrict Irish entries into their 22.
While Anscombe is sure to improve their kicking game, Sherratt has also tried to prune back Wales’ attacking game, beginning with good starter plays but nothing too elaborate.
“Sometimes when you’re desperate for a win and you put in so much effort it can be a little bit misplaced,” said Sherratt in addressing Wales’ 14-match losing run.
“So, we’ve got a pretty clear game plan against Ireland. We thought it was important to give the players one or two things to go after this week.
“If I’m honest, in our attacking structures we’ve got a framework in place for the players that they can stick to. There’s not been enough time to worry about little intricacies or trick plays against Ireland. It’s more about what we can do as a team and just trying to build on that throughout the Six Nations.”
Sherratt has also promised a Triple Crown chasing Ireland a hostile reception in the sold-out, enclosed Principality Stadium. Whatever anger has been stoked up come kick-off in Cardiff by amplifying one idle bit of radio chit chat, allegations of general Irish arrogance across the water are both slightly opportunistic and unrepresentative of the prevailing views toward Welsh rugby.
Certainly, this group of Irish players and coaches will be acutely mindful that this will be, as Jonathan ‘Jiffy’ Davies said on Off The Ball this week, “a much improved” Welsh side from the one which lost in Rome two weeks ago.
Ireland will also be conscious that prior to the win here two years ago, they had lost on their previous four visits in the Six Nations. Robbie Henshaw, for one, is three defeats from three Championship visits to Cardiff.
No Irish team under Joe Schmidt ever won here and there have been some strange and unexpected events along the way in this stadium. The Mike Phillips try that should never have been awarded in 2011. Peter O’Mahony’s 15th minute red card four years ago.
Sherratt will have used his fresh voice this week to infuse his players with positive messages to banish the negativity of their losing run. If Wales strike the first telling blow, then that will cast the memory of those 14 defeats further into history. Sport can work like that. A ‘bounce’ is a thing. Emotion and energy can carry a team a long way.
Gone are the days when teams “felt each other out” in a cautious, low-scoring first quarter. Fast starts are de rigueur, and it has seemed that more than most fixtures, especially in Cardiff, early tries have had a seismic effect on this one.
Recall 2019 and Hadleigh Parkes’s third-minute try, from an Anscombe chip over the advancing green line, which meant Wales could lead from the front under the open roof and rain, as even Johnny Sexton had an utterly miserable day.
Or Ireland’s visit two years ago, when Warren Gatland’s prodigal return had spread hope in Welsh ranks and trepidation among Irish supporters. All of these thoughts were swiftly banished when Caelan Doris barged over in the third minute, as Ireland raced into a 27-3 lead by the half-hour mark, and the bonus point win launched a Grand Slam campaign.
A fast start seems more imperative for Wales admittedly, and Easterby has put some perspective on its importance, even if this is normally something Ireland are good at achieving.
“The recent history shows that but it doesn’t always mean to say that [this is the case]. We didn’t start fast against England, they got a bit of field position, ascendancy, and got a 7-0 lead. We stuck to our process and found a way to put pressure on them in the first half, then we took the game away from them in the second half. Yes, starting well does give you an advantage but every game is slightly different.”
In what will probably be a similar message to his players, Easterby added: “There’ll be plenty of Irish supporters there as well, I’d say, there usually is in Cardiff, and we need to make sure we don’t give them [Wales] that type of access that they can get momentum from.”
While this revamped Wales side look primed to come out firing, for all the changes, Ireland still have an experienced enough spine to roll with any punches that come their way. Ultimately too, they should still have the superior launch plays, and then the ball retention through phases to wear down the Welsh defence.
Presuming the younger Prendergast retains his disarming coolness in the white-hot furnace of his second away game at Test level, Ireland also have the firepower and cutting edge of Dan Sheehan, James Lowe, Mack Hansen et al, not to mention Bundee Aki in reserve, to simply score more tries. That’s usually the name of the game.
Wales: Blair Murray; Tom Rogers, Max Llewellyn, Ben Thomas, Ellis Mee; Gareth Anscombe, Tomos Williams; Nicky Smith, Elliot Dee, WillGriff John, Will Rowlands, Dafydd Jenkins, Jac Morgan (capt), Tommy Reffell, Taulupe Faletau.
Replacements: Evan Lloyd, Gareth Thomas, Henry Thomas, Teddy Williams, Aaron Wainwright, Rhodri Williams, Jarrod Evans, Joe Roberts.Ireland
Ireland: Jamie Osborne (Leinster); Mack Hansen (Connacht), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Robbie Henshaw (Leinster), James Lowe (Leinster); Sam Prendergast (Leinster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster, capt), Thomas Clarkson (Leinster); Joe McCarthy (Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster); Peter O’Mahony (Munster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Jack Conan (Leinster).
Replacements: Gus McCarthy (Leinster), Jack Boyle (Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht), James Ryan (Leinster), Cian Prendergast (Connacht), Conor Murray (Munster), Jack Crowley (Munster), Bundee Aki (Connacht).
Referee: Christophe Ridley (England)
Assistant referees: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia), Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
TMO: Ian Tempest (England)
Overall head-to-head: Pl 135. Wales 70 wins, Ireland 58 wins, 7 Draws.
Last five meetings: (2024) Ireland 31 Wales 7. (2023) Wales 10 Ireland 34-10. (2022) Ireland 29 Wales 7. (2021) Wales 21 Ireland 16. (2020) Ireland 32 Wales 9.
Betting: 16/1 Wales, 50/1 Draw, 1/33 Ireland. Handicap odds (Wales +22 pts) Evens Wales, 16/1 Draw, Evens Ireland.
Forecast: Ireland to subdue a fired-up Wales and win with a bonus point.
Ends.
