World Cup final: New Zealand v South Africa, Saturday, Stade de France, 8pm (Live on Virgin Media One, RTÉ2 and ITV1)
This is it then, after four years in the making and 47 matches over the last two months, the sport’s biggest game will be between the sport’s two grandees and only three-time winners. By late tonight, one or other will simply be the most successful side in the competition’s history and reigning world champions for another four years, and one chunk of players will ride off into the Test sunset utterly fulfilled.
It seems almost surprising to think that they’ve only met in one of the previous nine deciders, in 1995 – the most celebrated final of all time, an occasion that transcended sport thanks to the healing spirit of Nelson Mandela.
In 105 meetings over the last 103 years, the rivalry between New Zealand and South Africa has become the biggest and most intense in the global game. They are more than just representatives of their people. They are symbols of their countries, who judge themselves through meetings with each other, and such is the significance of the biggest game of their lives, the players will be prepared to dig deep and go to some very dark places. There truly will be no holding back.
There will be motivation aplenty, with the All Blacks in particularly vengeful mode, and not just for 1995, which took place amid claims of food poisoning and ended in an extra-time defeat, one of only two finals to be decided that way.
Two long months ago, in the aftermath of the Springboks blitzing the All Blacks 35-7 in their final warm-up game at Twickenham, it seemed highly unlikely that Ian Foster’s slightly bedraggled-looking side would not only make the final, but have a 50-50 chance of winning it.
This seemed all the truer when they were well beaten 27-13 by France on opening night. But helped by a favourable draw, they regrouped in Lyons, dipped their bread against Namibia (71-3), Italy (96-17) and Uruguay (73-0), before coming through a titanic quarter-final against Ireland (28-24) and breezed through the second biggest semi-final win of all time, beating Argentina 44-6.
This team is not really comparable to the special vintage of 2015, who retained their title, but here they are, one win away from becoming world champions.
By contrast, if the Springboks emulate Richie McCaw, Dan Carter et al and retain their hold on the World Cup, this will be one to tell the grandchildren about. They have played four of the other top six sides in the world, losing to Ireland in an epic pool tussle, and now face the side currently ranked one behind them in second place.
They have come through two contrasting but draining one-point wins in both the quarter-final against France and semi-final against England. As with the after-effects of the Twickenham warm-up, there are two ways of looking at this, in that the Springboks are the more match-hardened and the All Blacks the fresher.
As was the case four years ago, when they had a six-day turnaround before the final, Rassie Erasmus and Jacques Nienaber have heavily rotated their side, and especially their pack, during matches to offset fatigue and, to that end, have gone further with their 7-1 split for the final.
With Willie le Roux the only back on their bench, this is undoubtedly a risky strategy, all the more so as Bongi Mbonambi will have to go 80 minutes again. Either that, or Deon Fourie will have to fill in at hooker, something which backfired against Ireland.
But it certainly plays to their strategy of physically dominating the All Blacks as they did in Twickenham, with Eben Etzebeth, Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit et al set to empty the tank from the outset before the arrival of the Bomb Squad from early in the second half.
The Springboks will look to dominate the collisions and the gain line, impose their maul, win scrum penalties and mostly take three points when on offer; their tried and tested formula. Handre Pollard’s return to match-winning goal-kicking last week was a timely boost and, reassuringly for the Boks, he has kicked his past 14 place kicks at the Stade de France, dating back to 2017.
The All Blacks, by contrast, will seek a quicker tempo, with rapid recycling, quicker lineouts and maybe even occasional quick taps by Aaron Smith. They’ll look to move the Boks pack around with their kick passes and chips, as well as long kicks, while seeking to outflank the Boks’ defence on the edges, as they did when roaring into an early lead last July in their 35-20 win in Auckland.
By any metric – 48 tries to 27, an average of 13.5 line breaks to 5.7, almost twice as many defenders beaten and offloads, and a higher conversion rate – they have the better attacking game. Against that, an early couple of Pollard penalties or a Boks’ try could well reopen the Twickenham wounds.
There hasn’t been a sighting of a rugby replica top all week and the atmosphere is likely to be neutered by the relative lack of partisanship. The rain that has hit Paris this week is forecast to return in the afternoon and again in the second period. But with Wayne Barnes likely to let the game flow, this match ought to engage any true rugby audience.
Any rain should favour the Boks, especially after the introduction of the Bomb Squad and if the game is still tight. That potential eventuality does temper the feeling that Scott Barrett, Ardie Savea, Sam Cane and co will front up like England did and the All Blacks have more tries in them, but either way this mighty collision should fit the occasion.
South Africa: Damian Willemse; Kurt-Lee Arendse, Jesse Kriel, Damian de Allende, Cheslin Kolbe; Handre Pollard, Faf de Klerk; Steven Kitshoff, Bongi Mbonambi, Frans Malherbe; Eben Etzebeth, Franco Mostert; Siya Kolisi (capt), Pieter-Steph du Toit, Duane Vermeulen. Replacements: Deon Fourie, Ox Nche, Trevor Nyakane, Jean Kleyn, RG Snyman, Kwagga Smith, Jasper Wiese, Willie Le Roux.
New Zealand: Beauden Barrett; Will Jordan, Rieko Ioane, Jordie Barrett, Mark Telea; Richie Mo’unga, Aaron Smith; Ethan de Groot, Codie Taylor, Tyrel Lomax; Brodie Retallick, Scott Barrett; Shannon Frizell, Sam Cane, Ardie Savea. Replacements: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Tamaiti Williams, Nepo Laulala, Sam Whitelock, Dalton Papali’i, Finlay Christie, Damian McKenzie, Anton Lienert-Brown.
Forecast: All Blacks to win.
