The Trouble with predictions

The Schemozzle always likes to keep the pundits honest. This week, it’s Colm Cooper’s turn.

The Kerry legend, speaking on RTÉ Radio 1 on Saturday evening after Dublin’s win over Monaghan gave his two cents on how the other semi-final would play out. Was he right? Yes and no.

“It’ll be something like tonight, it’ll be a 7-6 or 7-7 half-time score,” stated the Gooch, not unreasonably, “but I expect Kerry’s depth to do something like Dublin’s depth did this evening.”

Cooper was well off with his half-time prediction as Derry were ahead by three in a half which produced a total of 2-19. But the Kingdom’s bench did make an impact, notably Stephen O’Brien, and, crucially, he called the result correctly.

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Ulster opposition

Dublin were made to fight to the finish against Monaghan but Dessie Farrell’s men still ran out seven-point winners, which is in keeping with their championship record against Ulster teams in the last 15 seasons.

Since 2009, the Dubs have played 15 championship matches against Ulster opposition, winning 14. The 2014 All-Ireland semi-final against Donegal is the outlier and since that ambush, Dublin have won all 10 encounters against Ulster sides.

Since 2009, they have handed out beatings to Tyrone six times, Donegal three times, Monaghan twice and Cavan, Armagh and Fermanagh once apiece.

Over the course of that run, their average margin of victory has been 6.7 points. Interestingly, their league record against Ulster teams in the same period is markedly inferior to their 93.3 per cent win rate in championship.

In the National League since 2009, Dublin have played 45 matches against Ulster teams, winning 28 of them (62.2 per cent). Of course, not to open a can of worms, but a lot of those were away from Jones’s Road ...

Latin lines

Colm O’Rourke added some colour to his post-match interview with the line, “Nunc est bibendum”, meaning “now is the time for drinking”.

O’Rourke has always been fond of quoting some Latin. In his Sunday Indo column, he rolled out “de mortuis nil nisi bonum” (Do not speak ill of the dead) and once suggested then-Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy would do well to remember the phrase “Dictum meum pactum” (My word is my bond) after promising money to the GAA.

When he retired as Principal of St Patrick’s CS, he proclaimed “primus inter pares”, which is a variation on “everyone is equal”. And, in reference to Jim Gavin’s Dubs in their pomp, he produced the brilliant phrase Exegi monumentum aere perennius (I have built up a monument more lasting than bronze).

Flying high

Start spreading the news! New York football is flying high. After picking up their first win in the Connacht SFC (against Leitrim) earlier this season, the Exiles followed up with victory over Kilkenny in the All-Ireland Junior Football Championship final at Croke Park.

The competition is now confined to nine teams with seven from the UK plus Sunday’s finalists. In the past, Kerry and Cork, who chose from junior and intermediate clubs, dominated, with 37 titles between them.

Quote of the week

Number’s game

500: All-Ireland SFC matches Kerry have now played (kudos to our friends @GAA_Stats for the research).