In just over six weeks, Taoiseach Micheál Martin will be preparing to visit the White House to meet president Donald Trump.
Despite the recent gnashing of teeth and frayed nerves over what the second Trump administration will mean for Ireland, the channels of diplomacy in Washington are continuing as normal. Behind the very public stage show of the St Patrick’s Day events in the White House lies an ocean of logistical wranglings.
“You would often make contact after Thanksgiving but it is more difficult this time around as the new administration will only have their feet under the desk,” says a former official who served with the Irish Embassy in Washington.
“Normally the first contact would be made with the State Department just after Thanksgiving and you begin to tease out when the best date would be. There is a lot of painstaking contact because the American system is extremely large.”
As wave after wave of Trump policy reforms and changes continue to introduce profound domestic and international changes, the questions over how Ireland will fare over the next four years of the 47th United States presidency continue unabated.
Recent observations, from the much-quoted tweet of the incoming commerce secretary Howard Lutnick on Ireland’s trade surplus (“It’s nonsense that Ireland of all places runs a trade surplus at our expense,” he wrote) to the claim by Sean Spicer, who served as White House press secretary for a time during the first Trump administration, that Ireland has a “long way to go” with mending diplomatic bridges with the Republicans, and the general threat of tariffs, have all combined to create a state of anxiety for Ireland.
But the Spicer view was robustly countered in Irish governmental circles, and embassy sources are confident that Irish Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason has been scrupulous in cultivating friendships and connections with both sides of the US political system.
Eight years have passed since Spicer held that role: a political lifetime in Washington. With a new administration – and a change of political party – comes a complete clear-out of personnel. Irish diplomatic bipartisan contacts and relationships are maintained throughout administrative terms with both parties, irrespective of which party is in government.
“Of course you maintain contacts with the party not in office and it is clear we have been doing that,” says the former Washington diplomat.
“It is about a day-to-day effort at the cultivation of relationships. You can never stop. You have to keep wearing out your shoe leather by turning up at offices, talking to people, engaging with them, inviting them round. And that’s what has been happening for the past four years.”
The Friends of Ireland caucus is comprised of both Republican and Democratic representatives. One of those, New York Republican Representative Nicole Malliotakis, will serve on the incoming Ways and Means Committee.
The New Yorker has a big Irish constituency in her district, the 11th, which incorporates Staten Island and sections of Queens and Brooklyn. She is optimistic that the new administration can strengthen both trade ties and enhance the historical warmth between the US and Ireland.
“Ireland is a country I personally love,” Ms Malliotakis told The Irish Times.
“I have visited multiple times both in my capacity as an elected official and a personal capacity. I have an affinity for the Irish and a large population in my district. I am Greek and Cuban but I feel I am honorary Irish – the ambassador calls me ‘Molly O’Takis’. But I feel there is a very strong bilateral relationship between the US and Ireland. It has gotten stronger in recent years, and I think it will grow.”
She says that as a member of the US Congressional Ways and Means Committee, which oversees tax and trade, she sees the pharmaceutical industry as one area where there is potential to grow ties between the two countries.
“The US is very much looking to limit its dependency on communist China for pharmaceuticals, and Ireland seems to be a country where pharmaceutical manufacturing is growing. So, I think there is a real potential for our two countries to grow as we seek to friend-shore and on-shore our operations here in the US,” she said.
Acknowledging recently-voiced Irish concerns over the potential impact of US imports and tariffs and potential changes to the corporation tax, Malliotakis expressed reservations at Ireland’s involvement in the OECD global tax deal.
“I think that may have hurt Ireland. But now that the US is saying we’re not joining ... as long as there are no retaliatory taxes on American companies, I think you will just see the relationship grow,” she said.
“Obviously there have to be discussions as to how we get there. But you have a really wonderful Ambassador here in the United States and Geraldine has been a great advocate for your country. And she has become a friend, and she’s been very involved in ensuring she meets with elected officials and members of congress regularly and keeping us up to date with where those opportunities are.
“I am hopeful we will be able to visit Ireland in the near future – a delegation from our Ways and Means Committee- to talk about potential for trade – particularly as it relates to pharmaceuticals. I think that would be the next best step.”
The argument that the slow decline of Ireland’s influence in the US is gathering pace is reflected in the sharp drop of Irish immigrants to the US and also the diminishing number of overtly American-Irish political figures on Capitol Hill.
The counterview is it has moved to a different phase, with a diplomatic presence that is greater than ever before and a symbiotic trade and investment relationship.
“There is a history there and a comfort that we have a reliable partner,” says Malliotakis.
“The foreign direct investment works both ways and it is mutually beneficial. And geographically, you are the closest to us outside of Mexico and Canada.”
None of this guarantees sailing through four years of serene waters. Last March, Simon Harris arrived in Washington to offer strenuous words of Ireland’s concerns about Israel’s bombing of Gaza.
The current ceasefire is fragile. It remains to be seen how the Taoiseach will broach the issue with president Trump in March – and how that message is to be received. But the fundamentals of the Irish-US relationship remain sound – and warm.
Irish Embassy staff in Washington have been busy establishing relevant connections with incoming White House administration staff. But Ireland’s Embassy is just one of 170 in Washington, so the requests and demands for diplomatic time from any White House administration are immense.
For decades, Ireland has managed to carve out slices of time that have been the envy of embassies of comparable nations, and the St Patrick’s celebrations have brought extraordinary access, with the visiting Irish delegation visiting Capitol Hill, a breakfast hosted by the vice-president as well as the ceremonial events at the White House.
“Certainly at these events a lot of business does take place and a lot of relationship building,” says Rep Malliotakis.
“But your Ambassador is one of the more proactive that I have encountered. She reaches out and comes to meet you and has specific asks on what we can do to work together better.”
Those connections may be more critical than ever in negotiating a White House presidency which is shaping up to be highly unpredictable and volatile.
A source close to the Irish Embassy has stated there has been nothing to suggest that the logistical arrangements for this year’s White House celebrations will from previous years.
President Trump is familiar with the St Patrick’s arrangements from his previous term and the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, proved an enthusiastic host of the traditional Speaker’s luncheon attended by then president Joe Biden last year.
This year, the speeches will be different. But the protocols and diplomacy remain the same.
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