Sir, – Prof Kingston Mills presents a cautiously "optimistic outlook for Ireland and other developed countries with high vaccine uptake" ("Is the end of the Covid pandemic in sight?", Opinion & Analysis, August 13th). Your editorial agrees: "The worst is probably over" ("The need to move beyond Covid-19", August 13th).
History suggests there will be a next time.
In 1856, Dr William Wilde, Oscar’s father, collected detailed information about the many “cosmical phenomena, epizootics, famines and pestilences” to beset Ireland, from “the pagan or pre-Christian period” onward.
Wilde identified a pattern: “Many of the plagues from which this country suffered were continuations of those great waves of pestilence which had already passed (according to the general course of plagues) from the East, over the European continent, frequently carried along the track of human intercourse.”
A century and a half later, in a hyper-connected world, infections come from anywhere and spread everywhere.
In the census report, Wilde emphasised the importance of developing “a better understanding of the history of epidemics, as may lead to the discovery of the laws by which they are governed, and thus enable mankind to provide in some measure against their influence.”
Hopefully, progress with the current pandemic here will be accompanied by appropriate measures for developing countries: vaccine sharing, financial support, debt relief and capacity building for next time. – Yours, etc,
BRENDAN KELLY,
Professor of Psychiatry,
Trinity College Dublin,
Dublin 2.