Iran’s regional role in the Middle East and vulnerability to a Trump presidency are coming into clearer focus as the Gaza ceasefire and hostage agreement come into effect. Iran is strategically weaker following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and Israel’s assault on Hizbullah in Lebanon. It is suffering from US and other economic sanctions. Internally it must decide how to head off popular dissatisfaction and whether speeding up its nuclear weapons programme is worth the external threats that would bring.
Iranian hawks around Trump have spoken openly about these issues. He himself refused to answer questions on whether he is contemplating military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities and whether that was a factor in his discussions with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of the ceasefire deal that Trump insisted on. Targeting Iran is a long-standing Netanyahu objective and could now become more possible.
The clericalist regime there is having to adjust rapidly to this new geopolitical setting. It has given the reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian an important role. His visit to Moscow last week to sign a strategic agreement with Russia is an important part of that. The two states’ recent cooperation to reduce sanctions and swap military equipment is reinforced. It backs up Iran’s oil sales to and parallel diplomatic engagement with China in an effort to broaden its alliances. Meanwhile, Pezeshkian’s efforts to reopen nuclear arms limitation talks with the European Union have encountered suspicions from France in particular.
This is a remarkably open and fluid period for the region’s future development. Trump is committed to resurrecting the Abraham accords negotiated in his first term whereby Arab states recognised Israel, and badly wants Saudi Arabia to join them. This is now politically impossible for the Saudis without a Palestinian state.
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A grand diplomatic deal bringing these threads of policy together in coming months is possible to envisage. It would be far preferable to renewed war. But as the fragile Gaza ceasefire commences, the course of events remains unpredictable.